Statistics / Football / Peru. Primera División / ADT vs FC Cajamarca

ADT vs FC Cajamarca Statistics & Analysis

ADT ADT
Oct 10, 2026 - 18:00
0 1.55
0 1.44
xG Accuracy: 44%
FC Cajamarca FC Cajamarca
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 ADT Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 04:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13247772

Closing Odds 1.86
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · ADT 0–0 FC Cajamarca
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), FC Cajamarca (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on FC Cajamarca (1X2) by about 6.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
ADT (1X2) 42.4 50.0 -7.6
Draw (1X2) 27.3 26.2 +1.1
FC Cajamarca (1X2) 30.3 23.8 +6.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 30.3% on FC Cajamarca (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 23.8%. The difference — about 6.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: draftkings

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
ADT (1X2) 1.86 1.86 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.55 3.55 0.0
FC Cajamarca (1X2) 3.9 3.9 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Primera División
  • Fixture: ADT vs FC Cajamarca
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.4% · Draw 27.3% · Away 30.3%
  • xG (showing): ADT 1.55 — FC Cajamarca 1.44 (total xG ≈ 2.99)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 57.5% · Implied: 52.9% · Probability edge: +4.6 pts · Est. EV: +3.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Primera División Primera División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Alianza Lima 27 16 8 3 56
2 Universitario 27 14 7 6 49
3 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 14 6 7 48
4 FBC Melgar 27 13 7 7 46
5 Cusco 27 14 3 10 45
6 Cultural Santa Rosa 27 12 6 9 42
7 Cienciano 27 12 5 10 41
8 Alianza Atletico 27 11 7 9 40
9 Sporting Cristal 27 11 5 11 38
10 Sport Boys 27 10 8 9 38
11 Sport Huancayo 27 10 5 12 35
12 Juan Pablo II College 27 9 7 11 34
13 Atletico Grau 27 9 5 13 32
14 Comerciantes Unidos 27 7 9 11 30
15 FC Cajamarca 27 7 6 14 27
16 ADT 27 6 7 14 25
17 UCV Moquegua 27 6 7 14 25
18 UTC 27 4 8 15 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sporting Cristal 27 48 40 +8 38
2 Cienciano 27 46 40 +6 41
3 FBC Melgar 27 45 29 +16 46
4 Alianza Lima 27 44 18 +26 56
5 Universitario 27 43 31 +12 49
6 Juan Pablo II College 27 42 52 -10 34
7 FC Cajamarca 27 41 52 -11 27
8 Alianza Atletico 27 40 35 +5 40
9 Cusco 27 40 38 +2 45
10 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 39 24 +15 48
11 Sport Huancayo 27 37 44 -7 35
12 Cultural Santa Rosa 27 36 45 -9 42
13 Comerciantes Unidos 27 35 38 -3 30
14 UTC 27 32 50 -18 15
15 Sport Boys 27 29 26 +3 38
16 ADT 27 29 42 -13 25
17 Atletico Grau 27 26 31 -5 32
18 UCV Moquegua 27 24 41 -17 25
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 ADT 27 3.3 0.4 +2.9 25
2 Alianza Lima 27 2.3 0.0 +2.3 56
3 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 4.0 2.7 +1.3 48
4 Comerciantes Unidos 27 2.1 1.1 +1.0 30
5 FBC Melgar 27 1.7 1.4 +0.3 46
6 Universitario 27 1.4 1.7 -0.3 49
7 Sport Huancayo 27 1.3 1.6 -0.3 35
8 Cusco 27 1.4 2.3 -0.9 45
9 Juan Pablo II College 27 1.1 2.1 -1.0 34
10 UTC 27 0.0 2.3 -2.3 15
11 FC Cajamarca 27 0.4 3.3 -2.9 27
12 Cultural Santa Rosa 27 — — — 42
13 Cienciano 27 — — — 41
14 Alianza Atletico 27 — — — 40
15 Sporting Cristal 27 — — — 38
16 Sport Boys 27 — — — 38
17 Atletico Grau 27 — — — 32
18 UCV Moquegua 27 — — — 25
Primera División Peru. Primera División Predictions