Statistics / Football / Peru. Primera División / Cienciano vs Universitario

Cienciano vs Universitario Statistics & Analysis

Cienciano Cienciano
Aug 02, 2026 - 23:30
2 1.91
0 1.33
xG Accuracy: 68%
Universitario Universitario
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Cienciano Cienciano ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 2-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 02:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1957523

Closing Odds 2.3
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Cienciano win · Cienciano 2–0 Universitario
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Cienciano (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 15.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Cienciano (1X2) 49.8 40.3 +9.4
Draw (1X2) 24.9 29.9 -5.0
Universitario (1X2) 25.4 29.8 -4.4
Over 2.5 goals 62.8 47.2 +15.6
Under 2.5 goals 37.2 52.8 -15.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 62.8% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 47.2%. The difference — about 15.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Cienciano (1X2) 2.3 2.3 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.1 3.1 0.0
Universitario (1X2) 3.11 3.11 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.01 2.01 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.8 1.8 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Primera División
  • Fixture: Cienciano vs Universitario
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-02 23:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 49.8% · Draw 24.9% · Away 25.4%
  • xG (showing): Cienciano 1.91 — Universitario 1.33 (total xG ≈ 3.24)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 62.8% · Implied: 47.1% · Probability edge: +15.7 pts · Est. EV: +26.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 63.9% · No 36.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.9%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Primera División Primera División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Alianza Lima 27 16 8 3 56
2 Universitario 27 14 7 6 49
3 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 14 6 7 48
4 FBC Melgar 27 13 7 7 46
5 Cusco 27 14 3 10 45
6 Cultural Santa Rosa 26 12 5 9 41
7 Cienciano 26 12 4 10 40
8 Alianza Atletico 27 11 7 9 40
9 Sporting Cristal 27 11 5 11 38
10 Sport Boys 27 10 8 9 38
11 Sport Huancayo 27 10 5 12 35
12 Juan Pablo II College 27 9 7 11 34
13 Atletico Grau 27 9 5 13 32
14 Comerciantes Unidos 27 7 9 11 30
15 FC Cajamarca 27 7 6 14 27
16 ADT 27 6 7 14 25
17 UCV Moquegua 27 6 7 14 25
18 UTC 27 4 8 15 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sporting Cristal 27 48 40 +8 38
2 FBC Melgar 27 45 29 +16 46
3 Cienciano 26 45 39 +6 40
4 Alianza Lima 27 44 18 +26 56
5 Universitario 27 43 31 +12 49
6 Juan Pablo II College 27 42 52 -10 34
7 FC Cajamarca 27 41 52 -11 27
8 Alianza Atletico 27 40 35 +5 40
9 Cusco 27 40 38 +2 45
10 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 39 24 +15 48
11 Sport Huancayo 27 37 44 -7 35
12 Comerciantes Unidos 27 35 38 -3 30
13 Cultural Santa Rosa 26 35 44 -9 41
14 UTC 27 32 50 -18 15
15 Sport Boys 27 29 26 +3 38
16 ADT 27 29 42 -13 25
17 Atletico Grau 27 26 31 -5 32
18 UCV Moquegua 27 24 41 -17 25
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Alianza Lima 27 2.3 0.0 +2.3 56
2 Deportivo Garcilaso 27 2.3 1.4 +0.9 48
3 Cusco 27 1.4 2.3 -0.9 45
4 UTC 27 0.0 2.3 -2.3 15
5 Universitario 27 — — — 49
6 FBC Melgar 27 — — — 46
7 Cultural Santa Rosa 26 — — — 41
8 Cienciano 26 — — — 40
9 Alianza Atletico 27 — — — 40
10 Sporting Cristal 27 — — — 38
11 Sport Boys 27 — — — 38
12 Sport Huancayo 27 — — — 35
13 Juan Pablo II College 27 — — — 34
14 Atletico Grau 27 — — — 32
15 Comerciantes Unidos 27 — — — 30
16 FC Cajamarca 27 — — — 27
17 ADT 27 — — — 25
18 UCV Moquegua 27 — — — 25
Primera División Peru. Primera División Predictions