Statistics / Football / Australia. Npl Nsw U20 / St George Saints U20 vs Sydney Olympic U20

St George Saints U20 vs Sydney Olympic U20 Statistics & Analysis

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St George Saints U20
Jun 27, 2026 - 06:30
3 1.32
3 1.28
xG Accuracy: 39%
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Sydney Olympic U20
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 St George Saints U20 Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 02:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1792901

Closing Odds 1.69
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · St George Saints U20 3–3 Sydney Olympic U20
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Sydney Olympic U20 (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Sydney Olympic U20 (1X2) by about 6.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
St George Saints U20 (1X2) 39.4 52.5 -13.2
Draw (1X2) 28.4 22.1 +6.2
Sydney Olympic U20 (1X2) 32.2 25.3 +6.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.2% on Sydney Olympic U20 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 25.3%. The difference — about 6.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
St George Saints U20 (1X2) 1.69 1.69 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.01 4.01 0.0
Sydney Olympic U20 (1X2) 3.51 3.51 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Npl Nsw U20
  • Fixture: St George Saints U20 vs Sydney Olympic U20
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-27 06:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.4% · Draw 28.4% · Away 32.2%
  • xG (showing): St George Saints U20 1.32 — Sydney Olympic U20 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 27.7% · Probability edge: +24.1 pts · Est. EV: +73.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Npl Nsw U20 Npl Nsw U20 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 APIA Leichhardt U20 30 23 3 4 72
2 Sydney Utd U20 30 19 6 5 63
3 Marconi S. U20 30 17 6 7 57
4 Manly Utd U20 30 16 4 10 52
5 NWS Spirit U20 30 15 5 10 50
6 Sydney FC U20 30 13 9 8 48
7 Wollongong Wolves U20 30 13 8 9 47
8 Sutherland Sharks U20 30 13 5 12 44
9 Blacktown City U20 30 13 5 12 44
10 SD Raiders U20 30 12 6 12 42
11 WS Wanderers U20 30 11 2 17 35
12 Rockdale Ilinden U20 30 10 5 15 35
13 St. George City U20 30 9 7 14 34
14 UNSW U20 30 9 7 14 34
15 St George Saints U20 30 3 6 21 15
16 Sydney Olympic U20 30 0 4 26 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sydney Utd U20 30 99 48 +51 63
2 Sutherland Sharks U20 30 73 56 +17 44
3 APIA Leichhardt U20 30 70 26 +44 72
4 NWS Spirit U20 30 68 55 +13 50
5 Sydney FC U20 30 67 52 +15 48
6 Wollongong Wolves U20 30 63 53 +10 47
7 Manly Utd U20 30 62 38 +24 52
8 St. George City U20 30 61 68 -7 34
9 WS Wanderers U20 30 57 70 -13 35
10 Marconi S. U20 30 56 29 +27 57
11 Blacktown City U20 30 56 65 -9 44
12 UNSW U20 30 56 76 -20 34
13 SD Raiders U20 30 52 61 -9 42
14 St George Saints U20 30 46 90 -44 15
15 Rockdale Ilinden U20 30 40 70 -30 35
16 Sydney Olympic U20 30 26 95 -69 4