Statistics / Football / Kuwait. Division 1 / Sporty vs Al Sahel

Sporty vs Al Sahel Statistics & Analysis

Sporty Sporty
Aug 06, 2026 - 17:45
0 1.22
2 1.62
xG Accuracy: 64%
Al Sahel Al Sahel
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Al Sahel Al Sahel ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 0-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 02:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2558513

Closing Odds 1.24
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Al Sahel win · Sporty 0–2 Al Sahel
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Sporty (1X2), Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Sporty (1X2) by about 10.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Sporty (1X2) 21.0 10.2 +10.8
Draw (1X2) 25.3 17.9 +7.4
Al Sahel (1X2) 53.8 71.9 -18.1
Over 2.5 goals 54.0 54.5 -0.5
Under 2.5 goals 46.0 45.5 +0.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 21.0% on Sporty (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 10.2%. The difference — about 10.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Sporty (1X2) 8.73 8.73 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.98 4.98 0.0
Al Sahel (1X2) 1.24 1.24 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.69 1.69 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.02 2.02 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division 1
  • Fixture: Sporty vs Al Sahel
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-06 17:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 21.0% · Draw 25.3% · Away 53.8%
  • xG (showing): Sporty 1.22 — Al Sahel 1.62 (total xG ≈ 2.84)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 46.0% · Over 2.5 54.0%); BTTS Yes (Yes 58.0% · No 42.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 58.0% · No 42.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Division 1 Division 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Al Sulaibikhat 21 13 5 3 44
2 Al Sahel 21 13 5 3 44
3 Yarmouk 21 13 4 4 43
4 Al Jazira 21 11 5 5 38
5 Khaitan 21 7 6 8 27
6 Burgan 21 5 8 8 23
7 Shamiya 21 3 1 17 10
8 Sporty 21 2 0 19 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Yarmouk 21 42 20 +22 43
2 Al Jazira 21 41 24 +17 38
3 Al Sulaibikhat 21 38 16 +22 44
4 Al Sahel 21 35 16 +19 44
5 Burgan 21 26 30 -4 23
6 Khaitan 21 23 20 +3 27
7 Shamiya 21 19 63 -44 10
8 Sporty 21 14 49 -35 6