Sporting Hasselt vs Spouwen-Mopertingen Statistics & Analysis

Sporting Hasselt

Aug 08, 2026 - 17:00

4 1.36

0 1.24

xG Accuracy: 34%

Spouwen-Mopertingen

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Sporting Hasselt Sporting Hasselt ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 02:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2827134

Closing Odds 1.38

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Sporting Hasselt win · Sporting Hasselt 4–0 Spouwen-Mopertingen

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Spouwen-Mopertingen (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Spouwen-Mopertingen (1X2) by about 16.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Sporting Hasselt (1X2)	38.0	64.2	-26.2
Draw (1X2)	29.6	19.6	+10.0
Spouwen-Mopertingen (1X2)	32.4	16.2	+16.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.4% on Spouwen-Mopertingen (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 16.2%. The difference — about 16.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Sporting Hasselt (1X2)	1.38	1.38
Draw (1X2)	4.53	4.53
Spouwen-Mopertingen (1X2)	5.47	5.47

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Friendlies Clubs
Fixture: Sporting Hasselt vs Spouwen-Mopertingen
Kickoff: 2026-08-08 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
xG (showing): Sporting Hasselt 1.36 — Spouwen-Mopertingen 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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