Statistics / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / Leek Town vs Macclesfield

Leek Town vs Macclesfield Statistics & Analysis

Jul 14, 2026 - 18:45
1 1.40
1 1.20
xG Accuracy: 85%
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Macclesfield Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 17:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1480534

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Leek Town 1–1 Macclesfield
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Friendlies Clubs
  • Fixture: Leek Town vs Macclesfield
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-14 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.5% · Draw 28.4% · Away 39.1%
  • xG (showing): Leek Town 1.4 — Macclesfield 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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