Statistics / Football / Croatia. HNL / NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka

NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka Statistics & Analysis

NK Slaven Belupo NK Slaven Belupo
Oct 11, 2026 - 16:00
4 0.90
1 1.53
xG Accuracy: 37%
HNK Rijeka HNK Rijeka
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 HNK Rijeka NK Slaven Belupo ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13229010

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result NK Slaven Belupo win · NK Slaven Belupo 4–1 HNK Rijeka
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: HNL
  • Fixture: NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 19.6% · Draw 27.2% · Away 53.2%
  • xG (showing): NK Slaven Belupo 0.9 — HNK Rijeka 1.53 (total xG ≈ 2.43)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 56.2% · Implied: 45.4% · Probability edge: +10.8 pts · Est. EV: +19.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
HNL HNL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 7 5 1 1 16
2 HNK Hajduk Split 8 5 1 2 16
3 NK Osijek 8 5 1 2 16
4 NK Varazdin 8 4 3 1 15
5 HNK Rijeka 7 4 2 1 14
6 Istra 1961 8 2 3 3 9
7 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 8 2 1 5 7
8 NK Slaven Belupo 8 2 1 5 7
9 HNK Gorica 8 1 2 5 5
10 Rudes 8 1 1 6 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 7 17 9 +8 16
2 NK Osijek 8 17 11 +6 16
3 HNK Hajduk Split 8 16 8 +8 16
4 Istra 1961 8 14 13 +1 9
5 NK Varazdin 8 13 7 +6 15
6 HNK Rijeka 7 13 7 +6 14
7 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 8 11 16 -5 7
8 Rudes 8 10 24 -14 4
9 NK Slaven Belupo 8 7 16 -9 7
10 HNK Gorica 8 5 12 -7 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 7 11.6 4.6 +7.0 16
2 NK Varazdin 8 11.0 6.3 +4.7 15
3 Istra 1961 8 12.0 8.0 +4.0 9
4 HNK Hajduk Split 8 10.4 6.9 +3.5 16
5 HNK Rijeka 7 9.0 6.5 +2.5 14
6 NK Osijek 8 10.4 8.4 +2.0 16
7 HNK Gorica 8 7.3 10.7 -3.4 5
8 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 8 8.9 13.8 -4.9 7
9 NK Slaven Belupo 8 8.8 14.8 -6.0 7
10 Rudes 8 5.4 14.7 -9.3 4
HNL Croatia. HNL Predictions