Statistics / Football / Croatia. HNL / HNK Rijeka vs HNK Hajduk Split

HNK Rijeka vs HNK Hajduk Split Statistics & Analysis

HNK Rijeka HNK Rijeka
Sep 20, 2026 - 15:00
3 1.14
0 1.08
xG Accuracy: 45%
HNK Hajduk Split HNK Hajduk Split
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 HNK Rijeka HNK Rijeka ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8697128

Closing Odds 1.93
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result HNK Rijeka win · HNK Rijeka 3–0 HNK Hajduk Split
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), HNK Hajduk Split (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 12.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
HNK Rijeka (1X2) 39.2 49.2 -10.0
Draw (1X2) 31.2 27.4 +3.8
HNK Hajduk Split (1X2) 29.6 23.4 +6.2
Over 2.5 goals 38.3 50.8 -12.5
Under 2.5 goals 61.7 49.2 +12.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 61.7% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 49.2%. The difference — about 12.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
HNK Rijeka (1X2) 1.93 1.93 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.47 3.47 0.0
HNK Hajduk Split (1X2) 4.07 4.07 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.88 1.88 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.94 1.94 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: HNL
  • Fixture: HNK Rijeka vs HNK Hajduk Split
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.2% · Draw 31.2% · Away 29.6%
  • xG (showing): HNK Rijeka 1.14 — HNK Hajduk Split 1.08 (total xG ≈ 2.22)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 61.7% · Implied: 49.4% · Probability edge: +12.3 pts · Est. EV: +20.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
HNL HNL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 7 5 1 1 16
2 HNK Hajduk Split 8 5 1 2 16
3 NK Osijek 8 5 1 2 16
4 NK Varazdin 8 4 3 1 15
5 HNK Rijeka 7 4 2 1 14
6 Istra 1961 8 2 3 3 9
7 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 8 2 1 5 7
8 NK Slaven Belupo 8 2 1 5 7
9 HNK Gorica 8 1 2 5 5
10 Rudes 8 1 1 6 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 7 17 9 +8 16
2 NK Osijek 8 17 11 +6 16
3 HNK Hajduk Split 8 16 8 +8 16
4 Istra 1961 8 14 13 +1 9
5 NK Varazdin 8 13 7 +6 15
6 HNK Rijeka 7 13 7 +6 14
7 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 8 11 16 -5 7
8 Rudes 8 10 24 -14 4
9 NK Slaven Belupo 8 7 16 -9 7
10 HNK Gorica 8 5 12 -7 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 7 10.2 3.5 +6.7 16
2 NK Varazdin 8 9.8 5.1 +4.7 15
3 NK Osijek 8 9.6 5.7 +3.9 16
4 HNK Hajduk Split 8 9.3 5.5 +3.8 16
5 Istra 1961 8 9.4 7.2 +2.2 9
6 HNK Rijeka 7 6.9 4.7 +2.2 14
7 HNK Gorica 8 6.0 9.1 -3.1 5
8 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 8 7.8 12.7 -4.9 7
9 NK Slaven Belupo 8 6.9 12.7 -5.8 7
10 Rudes 8 3.8 13.4 -9.6 4