Statistics / Football / Croatia. HNL / HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Slaven Belupo

HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Slaven Belupo Statistics & Analysis

HNK Hajduk Split HNK Hajduk Split
Sep 13, 2026 - 18:00
1 2.12
0 0.92
xG Accuracy: 57%
NK Slaven Belupo NK Slaven Belupo
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 HNK Hajduk Split HNK Hajduk Split ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-0, 1-0, 2-1, 1-1, 3-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7457153

Closing Odds 1.28
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result HNK Hajduk Split win · HNK Hajduk Split 1–0 NK Slaven Belupo
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), NK Slaven Belupo (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 12.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
HNK Hajduk Split (1X2) 66.7 73.3 -6.7
Draw (1X2) 20.2 15.3 +4.8
NK Slaven Belupo (1X2) 13.2 11.3 +1.9
Over 2.5 goals 58.6 70.6 -12.0
Under 2.5 goals 41.4 29.4 +12.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.4% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 29.4%. The difference — about 12.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
HNK Hajduk Split (1X2) 1.28 1.28 0.0
Draw (1X2) 6.12 6.12 0.0
NK Slaven Belupo (1X2) 8.29 8.29 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.34 1.34 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 3.22 3.22 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: HNL
  • Fixture: HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Slaven Belupo
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 66.6% · Draw 20.2% · Away 13.2%
  • xG (showing): HNK Hajduk Split 2.12 — NK Slaven Belupo 0.92 (total xG ≈ 3.04)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 41.4% · Implied: 30.0% · Probability edge: +11.4 pts · Est. EV: +32.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-0 (10.7%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
HNL HNL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 7 5 1 1 16
2 HNK Hajduk Split 8 5 1 2 16
3 NK Osijek 8 5 1 2 16
4 NK Varazdin 8 4 3 1 15
5 HNK Rijeka 7 4 2 1 14
6 Istra 1961 8 2 3 3 9
7 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 8 2 1 5 7
8 NK Slaven Belupo 8 2 1 5 7
9 HNK Gorica 8 1 2 5 5
10 Rudes 8 1 1 6 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 7 17 9 +8 16
2 NK Osijek 8 17 11 +6 16
3 HNK Hajduk Split 8 16 8 +8 16
4 Istra 1961 8 14 13 +1 9
5 NK Varazdin 8 13 7 +6 15
6 HNK Rijeka 7 13 7 +6 14
7 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 8 11 16 -5 7
8 Rudes 8 10 24 -14 4
9 NK Slaven Belupo 8 7 16 -9 7
10 HNK Gorica 8 5 12 -7 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 7 10.2 3.5 +6.7 16
2 NK Varazdin 8 9.8 5.1 +4.7 15
3 NK Osijek 8 9.6 5.7 +3.9 16
4 HNK Hajduk Split 8 9.3 5.5 +3.8 16
5 Istra 1961 8 9.4 7.2 +2.2 9
6 HNK Rijeka 7 6.9 4.7 +2.2 14
7 HNK Gorica 8 6.0 9.1 -3.1 5
8 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 8 7.8 12.7 -4.9 7
9 NK Slaven Belupo 8 6.9 12.7 -5.8 7
10 Rudes 8 3.8 13.4 -9.6 4