Statistics / Football / Croatia. HNL / HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin

HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin Statistics & Analysis

HNK Gorica HNK Gorica
Sep 14, 2026 - 16:00
2 0.63
2 1.23
xG Accuracy: 56%
NK Varazdin NK Varazdin
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 NK Varazdin Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 0-0, 1-1, 0-2, 1-0 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7457094

Closing Odds 3.44
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · HNK Gorica 2–2 NK Varazdin
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), NK Varazdin (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 17.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
HNK Gorica (1X2) 17.4 27.6 -10.2
Draw (1X2) 33.3 27.5 +5.8
NK Varazdin (1X2) 49.2 44.9 +4.4
Over 2.5 goals 28.5 45.7 -17.2
Under 2.5 goals 71.5 54.3 +17.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 71.5% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 54.3%. The difference — about 17.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
HNK Gorica (1X2) 3.44 3.44 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.46 3.46 0.0
NK Varazdin (1X2) 2.12 2.12 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.09 2.09 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.76 1.76 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: HNL
  • Fixture: HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-14 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 17.4% · Draw 33.3% · Away 49.2%
  • xG (showing): HNK Gorica 0.63 — NK Varazdin 1.23 (total xG ≈ 1.86)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 71.5% · Implied: 52.2% · Probability edge: +19.3 pts · Est. EV: +32.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
HNL HNL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 7 5 1 1 16
2 HNK Hajduk Split 8 5 1 2 16
3 NK Osijek 8 5 1 2 16
4 NK Varazdin 8 4 3 1 15
5 HNK Rijeka 7 4 2 1 14
6 Istra 1961 8 2 3 3 9
7 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 8 2 1 5 7
8 NK Slaven Belupo 8 2 1 5 7
9 HNK Gorica 8 1 2 5 5
10 Rudes 8 1 1 6 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 7 17 9 +8 16
2 NK Osijek 8 17 11 +6 16
3 HNK Hajduk Split 8 16 8 +8 16
4 Istra 1961 8 14 13 +1 9
5 NK Varazdin 8 13 7 +6 15
6 HNK Rijeka 7 13 7 +6 14
7 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 8 11 16 -5 7
8 Rudes 8 10 24 -14 4
9 NK Slaven Belupo 8 7 16 -9 7
10 HNK Gorica 8 5 12 -7 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 7 10.2 3.5 +6.7 16
2 NK Varazdin 8 9.8 5.1 +4.7 15
3 NK Osijek 8 9.6 5.7 +3.9 16
4 HNK Hajduk Split 8 9.3 5.5 +3.8 16
5 Istra 1961 8 9.4 7.2 +2.2 9
6 HNK Rijeka 7 6.9 4.7 +2.2 14
7 HNK Gorica 8 6.0 9.1 -3.1 5
8 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 8 7.8 12.7 -4.9 7
9 NK Slaven Belupo 8 6.9 12.7 -5.8 7
10 Rudes 8 3.8 13.4 -9.6 4