Statistics / Football / Croatia. HNL / HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Statistics & Analysis

HNK Hajduk Split HNK Hajduk Split
Aug 31, 2026 - 16:30
2 1.94
0 0.96
xG Accuracy: 76%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 HNK Hajduk Split HNK Hajduk Split ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 2-0, 1-1, 2-1, 3-0 2-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 03:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5148229

Closing Odds 1.41
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result HNK Hajduk Split win · HNK Hajduk Split 2–0 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): +37.5%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 4.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
HNK Hajduk Split (1X2) 58.9 67.0 -8.1
Draw (1X2) 24.3 19.7 +4.6
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (1X2) 16.8 13.3 +3.5
Over 2.5 goals 55.4 59.2 -3.8
Under 2.5 goals 44.6 40.8 +3.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 24.3% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 19.7%. The difference — about 4.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
HNK Hajduk Split (1X2) 1.41 1.41 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.79 4.79 0.0
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (1X2) 7.09 7.09 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.61 1.61 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.34 2.34 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: HNL
  • Fixture: HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-31 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 58.9% · Draw 24.3% · Away 16.8%
  • xG (showing): HNK Hajduk Split 1.94 — NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.96 (total xG ≈ 2.9)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 44.6% · Implied: 41.0% · Probability edge: +3.6 pts · Est. EV: +4.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
HNL HNL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 NK Osijek 7 5 0 2 15
2 HNK Hajduk Split 6 4 1 1 13
3 Dinamo Zagreb 6 4 1 1 13
4 NK Varazdin 6 4 1 1 13
5 HNK Rijeka 6 3 2 1 11
6 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 7 2 1 4 7
7 Istra 1961 6 1 3 2 6
8 NK Slaven Belupo 6 2 0 4 6
9 Rudes 6 1 0 5 3
10 HNK Gorica 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 NK Osijek 7 17 11 +6 15
2 HNK Hajduk Split 6 15 5 +10 13
3 Dinamo Zagreb 6 14 7 +7 13
4 NK Varazdin 6 11 5 +6 13
5 Istra 1961 6 11 10 +1 6
6 HNK Rijeka 6 10 7 +3 11
7 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 7 9 13 -4 7
8 Rudes 6 6 19 -13 3
9 NK Slaven Belupo 6 5 13 -8 6
10 HNK Gorica 6 2 10 -8 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 6 8.3 2.1 +6.2 13
2 NK Osijek 7 9.0 4.9 +4.1 15
3 HNK Hajduk Split 6 8.0 4.0 +4.0 13
4 NK Varazdin 6 7.4 3.7 +3.7 13
5 HNK Rijeka 6 5.4 3.4 +2.0 11
6 Istra 1961 6 8.2 6.7 +1.5 6
7 HNK Gorica 6 4.6 6.3 -1.7 1
8 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 7 6.4 10.8 -4.4 7
9 NK Slaven Belupo 6 4.9 12.2 -7.3 6
10 Rudes 6 3.3 11.4 -8.1 3
HNL Croatia. HNL Predictions