Statistics / Football / Croatia. HNL / HNK Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961

HNK Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961 Statistics & Analysis

HNK Hajduk Split HNK Hajduk Split
Aug 09, 2026 - 19:00
2 1.75
2 1.17
xG Accuracy: 74%
Istra 1961 Istra 1961
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 HNK Hajduk Split Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 02:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2822658

Closing Odds 1.37
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · HNK Hajduk Split 2–2 Istra 1961
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 2.78 percentage points on HNK Hajduk Split (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Istra 1961 (1X2) by about 8.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
HNK Hajduk Split (1X2) 54.6 68.9 -14.3
Draw (1X2) 24.7 18.4 +6.3
Istra 1961 (1X2) 20.7 12.7 +8.0
Over 2.5 goals 55.9 60.0 -4.0
Under 2.5 goals 44.1 40.0 +4.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 20.7% on Istra 1961 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 12.7%. The difference — about 8.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
HNK Hajduk Split (1X2) 1.43 1.37 +2.8
Draw (1X2) 4.76 5.13 -1.5
Istra 1961 (1X2) 6.73 7.41 -1.3
Over 2.5 goals 1.65 1.59 +2.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.27 2.38 -2.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: HNL
  • Fixture: HNK Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 54.6% · Draw 24.7% · Away 20.7%
  • xG (showing): HNK Hajduk Split 1.75 — Istra 1961 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.92)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 58.4% · Implied: 50.6% · Probability edge: +7.8 pts · Est. EV: +9.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 58.4% · No 41.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.0%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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HNL HNL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 7 5 1 1 16
2 HNK Hajduk Split 8 5 1 2 16
3 NK Osijek 8 5 1 2 16
4 NK Varazdin 8 4 3 1 15
5 HNK Rijeka 7 4 2 1 14
6 Istra 1961 8 2 3 3 9
7 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 8 2 1 5 7
8 NK Slaven Belupo 8 2 1 5 7
9 HNK Gorica 8 1 2 5 5
10 Rudes 8 1 1 6 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 7 17 9 +8 16
2 NK Osijek 8 17 11 +6 16
3 HNK Hajduk Split 8 16 8 +8 16
4 Istra 1961 8 14 13 +1 9
5 NK Varazdin 8 13 7 +6 15
6 HNK Rijeka 7 13 7 +6 14
7 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 8 11 16 -5 7
8 Rudes 8 10 24 -14 4
9 NK Slaven Belupo 8 7 16 -9 7
10 HNK Gorica 8 5 12 -7 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 7 10.2 3.5 +6.7 16
2 NK Varazdin 8 9.8 5.1 +4.7 15
3 NK Osijek 8 9.6 5.7 +3.9 16
4 HNK Hajduk Split 8 9.3 5.5 +3.8 16
5 Istra 1961 8 9.4 7.2 +2.2 9
6 HNK Rijeka 7 6.9 4.7 +2.2 14
7 HNK Gorica 8 6.0 9.1 -3.1 5
8 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 8 7.8 12.7 -4.9 7
9 NK Slaven Belupo 8 6.9 12.7 -5.8 7
10 Rudes 8 3.8 13.4 -9.6 4