Statistics / Football / Croatia. HNL / HNK Rijeka vs Rudes

HNK Rijeka vs Rudes Statistics & Analysis

HNK Rijeka HNK Rijeka
Aug 02, 2026 - 19:00
2 1.66
1 1.36
xG Accuracy: 82%
Rudes Rudes
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 HNK Rijeka HNK Rijeka ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 01:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1955690

Closing Odds 1.16
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result HNK Rijeka win · HNK Rijeka 2–1 Rudes
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Rudes (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Rudes (1X2) by about 15.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
HNK Rijeka (1X2) 55.3 81.5 -26.2
Draw (1X2) 23.4 12.2 +11.2
Rudes (1X2) 21.3 6.3 +15.0
Over 2.5 goals 58.1 58.3 -0.2
Under 2.5 goals 41.9 41.7 +0.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 21.3% on Rudes (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 6.3%. The difference — about 15.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
HNK Rijeka (1X2) 1.16 1.16 0.0
Draw (1X2) 7.77 7.77 0.0
Rudes (1X2) 14.99 14.99 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.63 1.63 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.28 2.28 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: HNL
  • Fixture: HNK Rijeka vs Rudes
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-02 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 55.3% · Draw 23.4% · Away 21.3%
  • xG (showing): HNK Rijeka 1.66 — Rudes 1.36 (total xG ≈ 3.02)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 41.9% · Over 2.5 58.1%); BTTS Yes (Yes 61.6% · No 38.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 61.6% · No 38.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.0%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 05, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
HNL HNL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 7 5 1 1 16
2 HNK Hajduk Split 8 5 1 2 16
3 NK Osijek 8 5 1 2 16
4 NK Varazdin 8 4 3 1 15
5 HNK Rijeka 7 4 2 1 14
6 Istra 1961 8 2 3 3 9
7 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 8 2 1 5 7
8 NK Slaven Belupo 8 2 1 5 7
9 HNK Gorica 8 1 2 5 5
10 Rudes 8 1 1 6 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 7 17 9 +8 16
2 NK Osijek 8 17 11 +6 16
3 HNK Hajduk Split 8 16 8 +8 16
4 Istra 1961 8 14 13 +1 9
5 NK Varazdin 8 13 7 +6 15
6 HNK Rijeka 7 13 7 +6 14
7 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 8 11 16 -5 7
8 Rudes 8 10 24 -14 4
9 NK Slaven Belupo 8 7 16 -9 7
10 HNK Gorica 8 5 12 -7 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 7 10.2 3.5 +6.7 16
2 NK Varazdin 8 9.8 5.1 +4.7 15
3 NK Osijek 8 9.6 5.7 +3.9 16
4 HNK Hajduk Split 8 9.3 5.5 +3.8 16
5 Istra 1961 8 9.4 7.2 +2.2 9
6 HNK Rijeka 7 6.9 4.7 +2.2 14
7 HNK Gorica 8 6.0 9.1 -3.1 5
8 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 8 7.8 12.7 -4.9 7
9 NK Slaven Belupo 8 6.9 12.7 -5.8 7
10 Rudes 8 3.8 13.4 -9.6 4
HNL Croatia. HNL Predictions