Statistics / Football / World. CONCACAF Central American Cup / Plaza Amador vs Firpo

Plaza Amador vs Firpo Statistics & Analysis

Plaza Amador Plaza Amador
Aug 05, 2026 - 00:00
2 1.38
1 1.22
xG Accuracy: 79%
Firpo Firpo
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Plaza Amador Plaza Amador ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 02:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2479468

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Plaza Amador win · Plaza Amador 2–1 Firpo
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: CONCACAF Central American Cup
  • Fixture: Plaza Amador vs Firpo
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-05 00:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): Plaza Amador 1.38 — Firpo 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.4% · Implied: 45.4% · Probability edge: +9.0 pts · Est. EV: +14.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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