Statistics / Football / Brazil. Capixaba B / Estrela do Norte vs Tupy

Estrela do Norte vs Tupy Statistics & Analysis

Estrela do Norte Estrela do Norte
Aug 22, 2026 - 19:00
4 1.33
0 1.27
xG Accuracy: 34%
Tupy Tupy
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Estrela do Norte Estrela do Norte ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 03:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4242063

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Estrela do Norte win · Estrela do Norte 4–0 Tupy
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Capixaba B
  • Fixture: Estrela do Norte vs Tupy
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Estrela do Norte 1.33 — Tupy 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Capixaba B Capixaba B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Estrela do Norte 8 7 1 0 22
2 Linhares 8 6 0 2 18
3 Rive 8 5 2 1 17
4 Audax São Mateus 8 5 1 2 16
5 GEL 8 3 3 2 12
6 Doze 8 3 1 4 10
7 Tupy 8 3 1 4 10
8 Sport Brasil ES 8 3 0 5 9
9 CTE Colatina 8 0 1 7 1
10 Pinheiros 8 0 0 8 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Linhares 8 22 2 +20 18
2 Estrela do Norte 8 21 1 +20 22
3 Audax São Mateus 8 15 5 +10 16
4 Rive 8 14 7 +7 17
5 GEL 8 10 7 +3 12
6 Sport Brasil ES 8 10 9 +1 9
7 Doze 8 8 13 -5 10
8 Tupy 8 8 14 -6 10
9 Pinheiros 8 5 27 -22 0
10 CTE Colatina 8 1 29 -28 1