Fard Alborz vs Saipa Statistics & Analysis

Fard Alborz

Jun 27, 2026 - 16:15

2 0.82

1 0.74

xG Accuracy: 67%

Saipa

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 draw Fard Alborz ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 02:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3021870

Closing Odds 2.12

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Fard Alborz win · Fard Alborz 2–1 Saipa

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Saipa (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Saipa (1X2) by about 2.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Fard Alborz (1X2)	32.8	32.2	+0.5
Draw (1X2)	39.2	42.4	-3.2
Saipa (1X2)	28.1	25.3	+2.7

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 28.1% on Saipa (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 25.3%. The difference — about 2.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Fard Alborz (1X2)	2.76	2.79	+0.0
Draw (1X2)	2.1	2.12	+0.1
Saipa (1X2)	3.49	3.55	-0.1

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Azadegan League
Fixture: Fard Alborz vs Saipa
Kickoff: 2026-06-27 16:15:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.8% · Draw 39.2% · Away 28.1%
xG (showing): Fard Alborz 0.82 — Saipa 0.74 (total xG ≈ 1.56)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
Model: 69.1% · Implied: 63.4% · Probability edge: +5.7 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Azadegan League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Nassaji Mazandaran	34	20	9	5	69
2	Mes Shahr-e Babak	34	19	11	4	68
3	Sanat Naft	34	16	12	6	60
4	Saipa	34	16	11	7	59
5	Pars Jonoubi JAM	34	16	12	6	57
6	Havadar	34	11	17	6	50
7	Fard Alborz	34	10	16	8	46
8	Mes Kerman	34	10	15	9	45
9	Naft Bandar Abbas	34	10	17	7	44
10	Ario Eslamshahr	34	9	16	9	43
11	Be'sat Kermanshah	34	9	11	14	35
12	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	34	8	11	15	35
13	Mes Soongoun	34	9	10	15	34
14	Niroye Zamini	34	8	12	14	33
15	Naft Gachsaran	34	7	14	13	32
16	Shahrdari Noshahr	34	5	15	14	27
17	Navad Urmia	34	4	12	18	24
18	Damash Gilanian	34	2	13	19	16

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Nassaji Mazandaran	34	48	17	+31	69
2	Pars Jonoubi JAM	34	44	22	+22	57
3	Mes Shahr-e Babak	34	41	14	+27	68
4	Sanat Naft	34	37	21	+16	60
5	Havadar	34	32	23	+9	50
6	Saipa	34	30	18	+12	59
7	Niroye Zamini	34	28	31	-3	33
8	Naft Bandar Abbas	34	26	19	+7	44
9	Be'sat Kermanshah	34	25	32	-7	35
10	Naft Gachsaran	34	25	41	-16	32
11	Fard Alborz	34	24	15	+9	46
12	Mes Kerman	34	23	18	+5	45
13	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	34	23	36	-13	35
14	Ario Eslamshahr	34	19	18	+1	43
15	Shahrdari Noshahr	34	18	29	-11	27
16	Mes Soongoun	34	17	34	-17	34
17	Navad Urmia	34	16	48	-32	24
18	Damash Gilanian	34	16	56	-40	16