Saipa vs Ario Eslamshahr Statistics & Analysis

Saipa

Jun 21, 2026 - 15:00

1 0.87

0 0.66

xG Accuracy: 80%

Ario Eslamshahr

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 draw Saipa ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 15:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1611323

Closing Odds 2.15

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Saipa win · Saipa 1–0 Ario Eslamshahr

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Ario Eslamshahr (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Ario Eslamshahr (1X2) by about 4.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Saipa (1X2)	36.5	41.4	-4.9
Draw (1X2)	39.2	38.7	+0.6
Ario Eslamshahr (1X2)	24.3	20.0	+4.3

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 24.3% on Ario Eslamshahr (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 20.0%. The difference — about 4.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Saipa (1X2)	2.15	2.15
Draw (1X2)	2.3	2.3
Ario Eslamshahr (1X2)	4.45	4.45

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Azadegan League
Fixture: Saipa vs Ario Eslamshahr
Kickoff: 2026-06-21 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.5% · Draw 39.2% · Away 24.3%
xG (showing): Saipa 0.87 — Ario Eslamshahr 0.66 (total xG ≈ 1.53)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 80.1% · Implied: 71.6% · Probability edge: +8.5 pts · Est. EV: +6.5%
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Azadegan League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Nassaji Mazandaran	34	20	9	5	69
2	Mes Shahr-e Babak	34	19	11	4	68
3	Sanat Naft	34	16	12	6	60
4	Saipa	34	16	11	7	59
5	Pars Jonoubi JAM	34	16	12	6	57
6	Havadar	34	11	17	6	50
7	Fard Alborz	34	10	16	8	46
8	Mes Kerman	34	10	15	9	45
9	Naft Bandar Abbas	34	10	17	7	44
10	Ario Eslamshahr	34	9	16	9	43
11	Be'sat Kermanshah	34	9	11	14	35
12	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	34	8	11	15	35
13	Mes Soongoun	34	9	10	15	34
14	Niroye Zamini	34	8	12	14	33
15	Naft Gachsaran	34	7	14	13	32
16	Shahrdari Noshahr	34	5	15	14	27
17	Navad Urmia	34	4	12	18	24
18	Damash Gilanian	34	2	13	19	16

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Nassaji Mazandaran	34	48	17	+31	69
2	Pars Jonoubi JAM	34	44	22	+22	57
3	Mes Shahr-e Babak	34	41	14	+27	68
4	Sanat Naft	34	37	21	+16	60
5	Havadar	34	32	23	+9	50
6	Saipa	34	30	18	+12	59
7	Niroye Zamini	34	28	31	-3	33
8	Naft Bandar Abbas	34	26	19	+7	44
9	Be'sat Kermanshah	34	25	32	-7	35
10	Naft Gachsaran	34	25	41	-16	32
11	Fard Alborz	34	24	15	+9	46
12	Mes Kerman	34	23	18	+5	45
13	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	34	23	36	-13	35
14	Ario Eslamshahr	34	19	18	+1	43
15	Shahrdari Noshahr	34	18	29	-11	27
16	Mes Soongoun	34	17	34	-17	34
17	Navad Urmia	34	16	48	-32	24
18	Damash Gilanian	34	16	56	-40	16