Statistics / Football / Iran. Azadegan League / Mes Shahr-e Babak vs Be'sat Kermanshah

Mes Shahr-e Babak vs Be'sat Kermanshah Statistics & Analysis

Mes Shahr-e Babak Mes Shahr-e Babak
Jun 15, 2026 - 14:30
0 0.92
0 0.62
xG Accuracy: 66%
Be'sat Kermanshah Be'sat Kermanshah
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Mes Shahr-e Babak Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 0-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 10:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1586509

Closing Odds 1.61
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Mes Shahr-e Babak 0–0 Be'sat Kermanshah
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 2.87 percentage points on Mes Shahr-e Babak (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 15.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Mes Shahr-e Babak (1X2) 39.3 55.2 -15.9
Draw (1X2) 38.7 29.1 +9.7
Be'sat Kermanshah (1X2) 21.9 15.7 +6.2
Over 2.5 goals 20.1 35.8 -15.7
Under 2.5 goals 79.9 64.2 +15.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 79.9% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 64.2%. The difference — about 15.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365 → Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Mes Shahr-e Babak (1X2) 1.7 1.61 +2.9
Draw (1X2) 2.9 3.06 -1.6
Be'sat Kermanshah (1X2) 5.25 5.66 -1.2
Over 2.5 goals 2.62 2.55 +0.3
Under 2.5 goals 1.44 1.42 -0.3

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Azadegan League
  • Fixture: Mes Shahr-e Babak vs Be'sat Kermanshah
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-15 14:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.3% · Draw 38.7% · Away 21.9%
  • xG (showing): Mes Shahr-e Babak 0.92 — Be'sat Kermanshah 0.62 (total xG ≈ 1.54)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Azadegan League Azadegan League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Nassaji Mazandaran 34 20 9 5 69
2 Mes Shahr-e Babak 34 19 11 4 68
3 Sanat Naft 34 16 12 6 60
4 Saipa 34 16 11 7 59
5 Pars Jonoubi JAM 34 16 12 6 57
6 Havadar 34 11 17 6 50
7 Fard Alborz 34 10 16 8 46
8 Mes Kerman 34 10 15 9 45
9 Naft Bandar Abbas 34 10 17 7 44
10 Ario Eslamshahr 34 9 16 9 43
11 Be'sat Kermanshah 34 9 11 14 35
12 Shenavarsazi Qeshm 34 8 11 15 35
13 Mes Soongoun 34 9 10 15 34
14 Niroye Zamini 34 8 12 14 33
15 Naft Gachsaran 34 7 14 13 32
16 Shahrdari Noshahr 34 5 15 14 27
17 Navad Urmia 34 4 12 18 24
18 Damash Gilanian 34 2 13 19 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Nassaji Mazandaran 34 48 17 +31 69
2 Pars Jonoubi JAM 34 44 22 +22 57
3 Mes Shahr-e Babak 34 41 14 +27 68
4 Sanat Naft 34 37 21 +16 60
5 Havadar 34 32 23 +9 50
6 Saipa 34 30 18 +12 59
7 Niroye Zamini 34 28 31 -3 33
8 Naft Bandar Abbas 34 26 19 +7 44
9 Be'sat Kermanshah 34 25 32 -7 35
10 Naft Gachsaran 34 25 41 -16 32
11 Fard Alborz 34 24 15 +9 46
12 Mes Kerman 34 23 18 +5 45
13 Shenavarsazi Qeshm 34 23 36 -13 35
14 Ario Eslamshahr 34 19 18 +1 43
15 Shahrdari Noshahr 34 18 29 -11 27
16 Mes Soongoun 34 17 34 -17 34
17 Navad Urmia 34 16 48 -32 24
18 Damash Gilanian 34 16 56 -40 16
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