Karlsruher SC vs Inter Statistics & Analysis

Karlsruher SC

Jul 26, 2026 - 14:30

1 1.28

2 1.32

xG Accuracy: 77%

Inter

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Inter Inter ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1452087

Closing Odds 1.5

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Inter win · Karlsruher SC 1–2 Inter

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 7.68 percentage points on Inter (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 18.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Karlsruher SC (1X2)	27.2	18.1	+9.1
Draw (1X2)	26.2	21.6	+4.7
Inter (1X2)	46.5	60.3	-13.8
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	66.3	-18.1
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	33.7	+18.1
BTTS Yes	54.5	55.7	-1.2
BTTS No	45.5	44.3	+1.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 33.7%. The difference — about 18.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Karlsruher SC (1X2)	7.0	5.0	+5.2
Draw (1X2)	4.75	4.2	+2.5
Inter (1X2)	1.33	1.5	-7.7
Over 2.5 goals	1.4	1.4	0.0
Under 2.5 goals	2.75	2.75	0.0
BTTS Yes	1.73	1.67	+2.1
BTTS No	2.0	2.1	-2.1

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Club Friendlies
Fixture: Karlsruher SC vs Inter
Kickoff: 2026-07-26 14:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 27.3% · Draw 26.2% · Away 46.5%
xG (showing): Karlsruher SC 1.28 — Inter 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 32.2% · Probability edge: +19.6 pts · Est. EV: +55.4%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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