Sandecja Nowy Sącz vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała Statistics & Analysis

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

Aug 05, 2026 - 16:00

3 1.36

0 1.24

xG Accuracy: 45%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Sandecja Nowy Sącz Sandecja Nowy Sącz ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 02:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2483368

Closing Odds 2.2

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Sandecja Nowy Sącz win · Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3–0 Rekord Bielsko-Biała

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Rekord Bielsko-Biała (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Rekord Bielsko-Biała (1X2) by about 1.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Sandecja Nowy Sącz (1X2)	38.0	40.4	-2.4
Draw (1X2)	29.6	28.8	+0.8
Rekord Bielsko-Biała (1X2)	32.4	30.8	+1.6
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	49.3	-1.1
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	50.7	+1.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.4% on Rekord Bielsko-Biała (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 30.8%. The difference — about 1.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Sandecja Nowy Sącz (1X2)	2.2	2.2
Draw (1X2)	3.09	3.09
Rekord Bielsko-Biała (1X2)	2.89	2.89
Over 2.5 goals	1.88	1.88
Under 2.5 goals	1.83	1.83

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Cup
Fixture: Sandecja Nowy Sącz vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała
Kickoff: 2026-08-05 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
xG (showing): Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1.36 — Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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