Statistics / Football / World. CONMEBOL Sudamericana / O'Higgins vs Boca Juniors

O'Higgins vs Boca Juniors Statistics & Analysis

O'Higgins O'Higgins
Jul 31, 2026 - 00:30
1(3) 1.29
0(4) 1.15
xG Accuracy: 67%
Boca Juniors Boca Juniors
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Boca Juniors O'Higgins ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 02:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1668335

Closing Odds 1.96
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result O'Higgins win · O'Higgins 1–0 Boca Juniors
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices O'Higgins (1X2), Draw (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on O'Higgins (1X2) by about 10.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
O'Higgins (1X2) 33.1 22.9 +10.2
Draw (1X2) 30.7 28.6 +2.0
Boca Juniors (1X2) 36.2 48.5 -12.3
Over 2.5 goals 44.1 40.6 +3.5
Under 2.5 goals 55.9 59.4 -3.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.1% on O'Higgins (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 22.9%. The difference — about 10.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
O'Higgins (1X2) 4.15 4.15 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.32 3.32 0.0
Boca Juniors (1X2) 1.96 1.96 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.34 2.34 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.6 1.6 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: CONMEBOL Sudamericana
  • Fixture: O'Higgins vs Boca Juniors
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-31 00:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.1% · Draw 30.7% · Away 36.2%
  • xG (showing): O'Higgins 1.29 — Boca Juniors 1.15 (total xG ≈ 2.44)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 51.2% · Implied: 45.5% · Probability edge: +5.7 pts · Est. EV: +7.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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CONMEBOL Sudamericana CONMEBOL Sudamericana — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Macara 6 2 4 0 10
2 Tigre 6 2 3 1 9
3 America de Cali 6 2 3 1 9
4 Alianza Atletico 6 0 2 4 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tigre 6 8 5 +3 9
2 Macara 6 6 3 +3 10
3 America de Cali 6 6 5 +1 9
4 Alianza Atletico 6 2 9 -7 2
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Tigre 6 4.1 3.0 +1.1 9
2 Macara 6 1.2 1.6 -0.4 10
3 America de Cali 6 — — — 9
4 Alianza Atletico 6 — — — 2
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