Statistics / Football / Brazil. Mineiro - 2 / CAP vs Uberaba

CAP vs Uberaba Statistics & Analysis

CAP CAP
Jun 28, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.22
1 1.38
xG Accuracy: 64%
Uberaba Uberaba
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Uberaba Uberaba ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 16:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1616200

Closing Odds 2.92
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Uberaba win · CAP 0–1 Uberaba
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Uberaba (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 15.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
CAP (1X2) 33.1 35.4 -2.3
Draw (1X2) 30.6 34.2 -3.6
Uberaba (1X2) 36.3 30.4 +5.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 32.5 +15.7
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 67.5 -15.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 32.5%. The difference — about 15.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
CAP (1X2) 2.51 2.51 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.6 2.6 0.0
Uberaba (1X2) 2.92 2.92 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.8 2.8 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.35 1.35 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Mineiro - 2
  • Fixture: CAP vs Uberaba
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-28 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.1% · Draw 30.6% · Away 36.3%
  • xG (showing): CAP 1.22 — Uberaba 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 33.8% · Probability edge: +14.4 pts · Est. EV: +36.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Mineiro - 2 Mineiro - 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Uberaba 10 7 2 1 23
2 Valeriodoce 10 5 5 0 20
3 Democrata SL 10 5 2 3 17
4 BOA 10 5 2 3 17
5 Aymorés 10 4 4 2 16
6 Villa Nova 10 4 2 4 14
7 CAP 10 3 3 4 12
8 Mamoré 10 3 3 4 12
9 Guarani MG 10 3 3 4 12
10 Coimbra 10 2 4 4 10
11 Caldense 10 1 3 6 6
12 Ipatinga 10 1 1 8 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Democrata SL 10 19 10 +9 17
2 Uberaba 10 17 9 +8 23
3 Aymorés 10 17 9 +8 16
4 Villa Nova 10 17 12 +5 14
5 BOA 10 12 9 +3 17
6 Coimbra 10 12 12 0 10
7 Guarani MG 10 12 14 -2 12
8 Valeriodoce 10 9 4 +5 20
9 CAP 10 9 9 0 12
10 Mamoré 10 8 9 -1 12
11 Caldense 10 6 14 -8 6
12 Ipatinga 10 6 33 -27 4