Statistics / Football / Lithuania. A Lyga / Šiauliai vs Suduva Marijampole

Šiauliai vs Suduva Marijampole Statistics & Analysis

Šiauliai Šiauliai
Aug 30, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.30
2 1.30
xG Accuracy: 76%
Suduva Marijampole Suduva Marijampole
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Šiauliai Suduva Marijampole ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 24, 2026 · 01:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5295348

Closing Odds 1.4
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Suduva Marijampole win · Šiauliai 1–2 Suduva Marijampole
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.19 percentage points on Suduva Marijampole (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE5.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Šiauliai (1X2) by about 21.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Šiauliai (1X2) 35.2 13.3 +21.9
Draw (1X2) 29.6 20.5 +9.1
Suduva Marijampole (1X2) 35.2 66.2 -31.0
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 56.5 -8.3
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 43.5 +8.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 35.2% on Šiauliai (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 13.3%. The difference — about 21.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Šiauliai (1X2) 6.67 6.98 -0.7
Draw (1X2) 4.42 4.52 -0.5
Suduva Marijampole (1X2) 1.43 1.4 +1.2
Over 2.5 goals 1.68 1.67 +0.4
Under 2.5 goals 2.15 2.17 -0.4

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Šiauliai; market prices Suduva Marijampole instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Šiauliai 1.30 xG vs Suduva Marijampole 1.30 → Šiauliai 35.2%
  • Market: Suduva Marijampole ~13.3% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
A Lyga A Lyga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kauno Žalgiris 28 14 9 5 51
2 Suduva Marijampole 28 13 11 4 50
3 TransINVEST Vilnius 28 13 6 9 45
4 FK Zalgiris Vilnius 28 13 5 10 44
5 Banga 28 11 8 9 41
6 Džiugas Telšiai 28 10 8 10 38
7 Panevėžys 28 9 5 14 32
8 Hegelmann Litauen 29 4 14 11 26
9 Šiauliai 29 3 8 18 17
10 FK Trakai 0 0 0 0 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kauno Žalgiris 28 56 20 +36 51
2 TransINVEST Vilnius 28 43 35 +8 45
3 FK Zalgiris Vilnius 28 41 34 +7 44
4 Suduva Marijampole 28 39 25 +14 50
5 Džiugas Telšiai 28 36 40 -4 38
6 Banga 28 32 28 +4 41
7 Hegelmann Litauen 29 31 48 -17 26
8 Panevėžys 28 29 43 -14 32
9 Šiauliai 29 24 58 -34 17
10 FK Trakai 0 0 0 0 0