Statistics / Football / Lithuania. A Lyga / Suduva Marijampole vs Panevėžys

Suduva Marijampole vs Panevėžys Statistics & Analysis

Suduva Marijampole Suduva Marijampole
Aug 23, 2026 - 15:45
2 1.28
0 1.32
xG Accuracy: 57%
Panevėžys Panevėžys
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Panevėžys Suduva Marijampole ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 01:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4367476

Closing Odds 1.51
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Suduva Marijampole win · Suduva Marijampole 2–0 Panevėžys
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Panevėžys (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Panevėžys (1X2) by about 19.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Suduva Marijampole (1X2) 34.2 61.4 -27.2
Draw (1X2) 29.7 22.4 +7.3
Panevėžys (1X2) 36.1 16.2 +19.9
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 54.7 -6.5
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 45.3 +6.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.1% on Panevėžys (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 16.2%. The difference — about 19.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Suduva Marijampole (1X2) 1.51 1.51 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.15 4.15 0.0
Panevėžys (1X2) 5.72 5.72 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.72 1.72 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.08 2.08 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: A Lyga
  • Fixture: Suduva Marijampole vs Panevėžys
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-23 15:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Suduva Marijampole 1.28 — Panevėžys 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Panevėžys
  • Model: 36.1% · Implied: 16.2% · Probability edge: +19.9 pts · Est. EV: +8.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
A Lyga A Lyga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kauno Žalgiris 28 14 9 5 51
2 Suduva Marijampole 28 13 11 4 50
3 TransINVEST Vilnius 28 13 6 9 45
4 FK Zalgiris Vilnius 28 13 5 10 44
5 Banga 28 11 8 9 41
6 Džiugas Telšiai 28 10 8 10 38
7 Panevėžys 28 9 5 14 32
8 Hegelmann Litauen 29 4 14 11 26
9 Šiauliai 29 3 8 18 17
10 FK Trakai 0 0 0 0 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kauno Žalgiris 28 56 20 +36 51
2 TransINVEST Vilnius 28 43 35 +8 45
3 FK Zalgiris Vilnius 28 41 34 +7 44
4 Suduva Marijampole 28 39 25 +14 50
5 Džiugas Telšiai 28 36 40 -4 38
6 Banga 28 32 28 +4 41
7 Hegelmann Litauen 29 31 48 -17 26
8 Panevėžys 28 29 43 -14 32
9 Šiauliai 29 24 58 -34 17
10 FK Trakai 0 0 0 0 0