Statistics / Football / Lithuania. A Lyga / Kauno Žalgiris vs Panevėžys

Kauno Žalgiris vs Panevėžys Statistics & Analysis

Kauno Žalgiris Kauno Žalgiris
Jul 11, 2026 - 16:00
3 1.36
0 1.24
xG Accuracy: 45%
Panevėžys Panevėžys
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Kauno Žalgiris Kauno Žalgiris ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 18:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3201366

Closing Odds 1.35
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Kauno Žalgiris win · Kauno Žalgiris 3–0 Panevėžys
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Panevėžys (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Panevėžys (1X2) by about 20.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Kauno Žalgiris (1X2) 38.0 68.7 -30.6
Draw (1X2) 29.6 19.4 +10.2
Panevėžys (1X2) 32.4 12.0 +20.4
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 59.2 -11.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 40.8 +11.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.4% on Panevėžys (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 12.0%. The difference — about 20.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Kauno Žalgiris (1X2) 1.35 1.35 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.79 4.79 0.0
Panevėžys (1X2) 7.73 7.73 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.58 1.58 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.29 2.29 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Kauno Žalgiris; market prices Kauno Žalgiris instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Kauno Žalgiris 1.36 xG vs Panevėžys 1.24 → Kauno Žalgiris 38.0%
  • Market: Kauno Žalgiris ~68.7% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
A Lyga A Lyga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kauno Žalgiris 28 14 9 5 51
2 Suduva Marijampole 28 13 11 4 50
3 TransINVEST Vilnius 28 13 6 9 45
4 FK Zalgiris Vilnius 28 13 5 10 44
5 Banga 28 11 8 9 41
6 Džiugas Telšiai 28 10 8 10 38
7 Panevėžys 28 9 5 14 32
8 Hegelmann Litauen 29 4 14 11 26
9 Šiauliai 29 3 8 18 17
10 FK Trakai 0 0 0 0 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kauno Žalgiris 28 56 20 +36 51
2 TransINVEST Vilnius 28 43 35 +8 45
3 FK Zalgiris Vilnius 28 41 34 +7 44
4 Suduva Marijampole 28 39 25 +14 50
5 Džiugas Telšiai 28 36 40 -4 38
6 Banga 28 32 28 +4 41
7 Hegelmann Litauen 29 31 48 -17 26
8 Panevėžys 28 29 43 -14 32
9 Šiauliai 29 24 58 -34 17
10 FK Trakai 0 0 0 0 0