Statistics / Football / Brazil. Paulista - U20 / União Suzano U20 vs Itapirense U20

União Suzano U20 vs Itapirense U20 Statistics & Analysis

União Suzano U20 União Suzano U20
Aug 21, 2026 - 18:00
2 1.40
1 1.20
xG Accuracy: 80%
Itapirense U20 Itapirense U20
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 União Suzano U20 União Suzano U20 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 02:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4034539

Closing Odds 1.92
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result União Suzano U20 win · União Suzano U20 2–1 Itapirense U20
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 5.66 percentage points on União Suzano U20 (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Itapirense U20 (1X2) by about 4.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
União Suzano U20 (1X2) 40.0 46.8 -6.8
Draw (1X2) 29.5 27.5 +2.0
Itapirense U20 (1X2) 30.6 25.7 +4.9
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 49.5 -1.3
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 50.5 +1.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 30.6% on Itapirense U20 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 25.7%. The difference — about 4.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
União Suzano U20 (1X2) 2.16 1.92 +5.7
Draw (1X2) 3.12 3.27 -1.0
Itapirense U20 (1X2) 2.93 3.5 -4.7
Over 2.5 goals 1.84 1.89 -0.9
Under 2.5 goals 1.87 1.85 +0.9

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Paulista - U20
  • Fixture: União Suzano U20 vs Itapirense U20
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-21 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 30.6%
  • xG (showing): União Suzano U20 1.4 — Itapirense U20 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.5%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for União Suzano U20 & Itapirense U20!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Paulista - U20 Paulista - U20 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Juventus U20 1 1 0 0 3
2 Santos U20 1 1 0 0 3
3 Ferroviária U20 1 1 0 0 3
4 Portuguesa Santista U20 1 1 0 0 3
5 Portuguesa U20 1 1 0 0 3
6 Corinthians U20 1 1 0 0 3
7 União Suzano U20 1 1 0 0 3
8 Ponte Preta U20 1 0 0 1 0
9 Jabaquara U20 1 0 0 1 0
10 São Bento U20 1 0 0 1 0
11 Mirassol U20 1 0 0 1 0
12 Itapirense U20 1 0 0 1 0
13 América-SP U20 1 0 0 1 0
14 Sertãozinho U20 1 0 0 1 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Juventus U20 1 3 0 +3 3
2 Santos U20 1 3 0 +3 3
3 Ferroviária U20 1 2 0 +2 3
4 Portuguesa Santista U20 1 2 1 +1 3
5 Portuguesa U20 1 2 1 +1 3
6 Corinthians U20 1 1 0 +1 3
7 União Suzano U20 1 1 0 +1 3
8 Ponte Preta U20 1 1 2 -1 0
9 Jabaquara U20 1 1 2 -1 0
10 São Bento U20 1 0 1 -1 0
11 Mirassol U20 1 0 1 -1 0
12 Itapirense U20 1 0 2 -2 0
13 América-SP U20 1 0 3 -3 0
14 Sertãozinho U20 1 0 3 -3 0