Statistics / Football / Brazil. Paulista - U20 / Osasco Audax U20 vs Referencia U20

Osasco Audax U20 vs Referencia U20 Statistics & Analysis

Osasco Audax U20 Osasco Audax U20
Aug 07, 2026 - 18:00
3 1.26
0 1.34
xG Accuracy: 43%
Referencia U20 Referencia U20
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Referencia U20 Osasco Audax U20 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 01, 2026 · 02:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2679825

Closing Odds 3.01
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Osasco Audax U20 win · Osasco Audax U20 3–0 Referencia U20
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 6.32 percentage points on Osasco Audax U20 (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Referencia U20 (1X2) by about 7.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Osasco Audax U20 (1X2) 33.4 40.2 -6.8
Draw (1X2) 29.6 29.9 -0.3
Referencia U20 (1X2) 37.0 29.9 +7.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 46.1 +2.1
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 53.9 -2.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 37.0% on Referencia U20 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 29.9%. The difference — about 7.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Osasco Audax U20 (1X2) 1.91 2.24 -6.3
Draw (1X2) 3.16 3.01 +1.8
Referencia U20 (1X2) 3.5 3.01 +4.5
Over 2.5 goals 1.95 2.01 -1.5
Under 2.5 goals 1.77 1.72 +1.5

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Paulista - U20
  • Fixture: Osasco Audax U20 vs Referencia U20
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-07 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Osasco Audax U20 1.26 — Referencia U20 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 51.1% · Probability edge: +0.7 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Paulista - U20 Paulista - U20 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Juventus U20 1 1 0 0 3
2 Santos U20 1 1 0 0 3
3 Ferroviária U20 1 1 0 0 3
4 Portuguesa Santista U20 1 1 0 0 3
5 Portuguesa U20 1 1 0 0 3
6 Corinthians U20 1 1 0 0 3
7 União Suzano U20 1 1 0 0 3
8 Ponte Preta U20 1 0 0 1 0
9 Jabaquara U20 1 0 0 1 0
10 São Bento U20 1 0 0 1 0
11 Mirassol U20 1 0 0 1 0
12 Itapirense U20 1 0 0 1 0
13 América-SP U20 1 0 0 1 0
14 Sertãozinho U20 1 0 0 1 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Juventus U20 1 3 0 +3 3
2 Santos U20 1 3 0 +3 3
3 Ferroviária U20 1 2 0 +2 3
4 Portuguesa Santista U20 1 2 1 +1 3
5 Portuguesa U20 1 2 1 +1 3
6 Corinthians U20 1 1 0 +1 3
7 União Suzano U20 1 1 0 +1 3
8 Ponte Preta U20 1 1 2 -1 0
9 Jabaquara U20 1 1 2 -1 0
10 São Bento U20 1 0 1 -1 0
11 Mirassol U20 1 0 1 -1 0
12 Itapirense U20 1 0 2 -2 0
13 América-SP U20 1 0 3 -3 0
14 Sertãozinho U20 1 0 3 -3 0