Statistics / Football / Brazil. Paulista - U20 / Ituano U20 vs Mauá U20

Ituano U20 vs Mauá U20 Statistics & Analysis

Ituano U20 Ituano U20
Jul 17, 2026 - 18:00
1 1.51
1 1.09
xG Accuracy: 85%
Mauá U20 Mauá U20
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Ituano U20 Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 20:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1635213

Closing Odds 1.36
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Ituano U20 1–1 Mauá U20
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Mauá U20 (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 9.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Ituano U20 (1X2) 51.5 65.1 -13.6
Draw (1X2) 26.7 20.4 +6.4
Mauá U20 (1X2) 21.8 14.5 +7.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 57.9 -9.7
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 42.1 +9.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 42.1%. The difference — about 9.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Ituano U20 (1X2) 1.36 1.36 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.35 4.35 0.0
Mauá U20 (1X2) 6.09 6.09 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.59 1.59 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.19 2.19 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Paulista U20
  • Fixture: Ituano U20 vs Mauá U20
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-17 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 51.5% · Draw 26.7% · Away 21.8%
  • xG (showing): Ituano U20 1.51 — Mauá U20 1.09 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 41.9% · Probability edge: +9.9 pts · Est. EV: +17.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Paulista - U20 Paulista - U20 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Juventus U20 1 1 0 0 3
2 Santos U20 1 1 0 0 3
3 Ferroviária U20 1 1 0 0 3
4 Portuguesa Santista U20 1 1 0 0 3
5 Portuguesa U20 1 1 0 0 3
6 Corinthians U20 1 1 0 0 3
7 União Suzano U20 1 1 0 0 3
8 Ponte Preta U20 1 0 0 1 0
9 Jabaquara U20 1 0 0 1 0
10 São Bento U20 1 0 0 1 0
11 Mirassol U20 1 0 0 1 0
12 Itapirense U20 1 0 0 1 0
13 América-SP U20 1 0 0 1 0
14 Sertãozinho U20 1 0 0 1 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Juventus U20 1 3 0 +3 3
2 Santos U20 1 3 0 +3 3
3 Ferroviária U20 1 2 0 +2 3
4 Portuguesa Santista U20 1 2 1 +1 3
5 Portuguesa U20 1 2 1 +1 3
6 Corinthians U20 1 1 0 +1 3
7 União Suzano U20 1 1 0 +1 3
8 Ponte Preta U20 1 1 2 -1 0
9 Jabaquara U20 1 1 2 -1 0
10 São Bento U20 1 0 1 -1 0
11 Mirassol U20 1 0 1 -1 0
12 Itapirense U20 1 0 2 -2 0
13 América-SP U20 1 0 3 -3 0
14 Sertãozinho U20 1 0 3 -3 0