Statistics / Football / Brazil. Paulista - U20 / Oeste U20 vs Ibrachina U20

Oeste U20 vs Ibrachina U20 Statistics & Analysis

Oeste U20 Oeste U20
Jul 09, 2026 - 22:00
0 1.19
1 1.41
xG Accuracy: 64%
Ibrachina U20 Ibrachina U20
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Ibrachina U20 Ibrachina U20 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1457714

Closing Odds 1.92
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Ibrachina U20 win · Oeste U20 0–1 Ibrachina U20
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Oeste U20 (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 5.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Oeste U20 (1X2) 30.1 26.6 +3.5
Draw (1X2) 29.4 27.1 +2.3
Ibrachina U20 (1X2) 40.5 46.3 -5.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 53.8 -5.6
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 46.2 +5.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 46.2%. The difference — about 5.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Oeste U20 (1X2) 3.34 3.34 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.28 3.28 0.0
Ibrachina U20 (1X2) 1.92 1.92 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.71 1.71 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.99 1.99 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Paulista - U20
  • Fixture: Oeste U20 vs Ibrachina U20
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-09 22:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Away 40.5%
  • xG (showing): Oeste U20 1.19 — Ibrachina U20 1.41 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 45.2% · Probability edge: +6.6 pts · Est. EV: +7.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Paulista - U20 Paulista - U20 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Juventus U20 1 1 0 0 3
2 Santos U20 1 1 0 0 3
3 Ferroviária U20 1 1 0 0 3
4 Portuguesa Santista U20 1 1 0 0 3
5 Portuguesa U20 1 1 0 0 3
6 Corinthians U20 1 1 0 0 3
7 União Suzano U20 1 1 0 0 3
8 Ponte Preta U20 1 0 0 1 0
9 Jabaquara U20 1 0 0 1 0
10 São Bento U20 1 0 0 1 0
11 Mirassol U20 1 0 0 1 0
12 Itapirense U20 1 0 0 1 0
13 América-SP U20 1 0 0 1 0
14 Sertãozinho U20 1 0 0 1 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Juventus U20 1 3 0 +3 3
2 Santos U20 1 3 0 +3 3
3 Ferroviária U20 1 2 0 +2 3
4 Portuguesa Santista U20 1 2 1 +1 3
5 Portuguesa U20 1 2 1 +1 3
6 Corinthians U20 1 1 0 +1 3
7 União Suzano U20 1 1 0 +1 3
8 Ponte Preta U20 1 1 2 -1 0
9 Jabaquara U20 1 1 2 -1 0
10 São Bento U20 1 0 1 -1 0
11 Mirassol U20 1 0 1 -1 0
12 Itapirense U20 1 0 2 -2 0
13 América-SP U20 1 0 3 -3 0
14 Sertãozinho U20 1 0 3 -3 0
Paulista - U20 Brazil. Paulista - U20 Predictions