Statistics / Football / Brazil. Paulista - U20 / Ponte Preta U20 vs Santos U20

Ponte Preta U20 vs Santos U20 Statistics & Analysis

Ponte Preta U20 Ponte Preta U20
Jul 04, 2026 - 18:00
0 1.19
0 1.41
xG Accuracy: 49%
Santos U20 Santos U20
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Santos U20 Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 0-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 22:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1516126

Closing Odds 1.61
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Ponte Preta U20 0–0 Santos U20
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 4.83 percentage points on Santos U20 (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Ponte Preta U20 (1X2) by about 7.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Ponte Preta U20 (1X2) 28.8 20.9 +7.9
Draw (1X2) 28.4 23.2 +5.2
Santos U20 (1X2) 42.8 55.9 -13.1
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 53.9 -5.7
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 46.1 +5.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 28.8% on Ponte Preta U20 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 20.9%. The difference — about 7.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Ponte Preta U20 (1X2) 3.65 4.3 -3.3
Draw (1X2) 3.57 3.88 -1.6
Santos U20 (1X2) 1.73 1.61 +4.8
Over 2.5 goals 1.76 1.72 +1.3
Under 2.5 goals 1.95 2.01 -1.3

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Paulista - U20
  • Fixture: Ponte Preta U20 vs Santos U20
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-04 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 28.8% · Draw 28.4% · Away 42.8%
  • xG (showing): Ponte Preta U20 1.19 — Santos U20 1.41 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 46.8% · Probability edge: +5.0 pts · Est. EV: +4.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Paulista - U20 Paulista - U20 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Juventus U20 1 1 0 0 3
2 Santos U20 1 1 0 0 3
3 Ferroviária U20 1 1 0 0 3
4 Portuguesa Santista U20 1 1 0 0 3
5 Portuguesa U20 1 1 0 0 3
6 Corinthians U20 1 1 0 0 3
7 União Suzano U20 1 1 0 0 3
8 Ponte Preta U20 1 0 0 1 0
9 Jabaquara U20 1 0 0 1 0
10 São Bento U20 1 0 0 1 0
11 Mirassol U20 1 0 0 1 0
12 Itapirense U20 1 0 0 1 0
13 América-SP U20 1 0 0 1 0
14 Sertãozinho U20 1 0 0 1 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Juventus U20 1 3 0 +3 3
2 Santos U20 1 3 0 +3 3
3 Ferroviária U20 1 2 0 +2 3
4 Portuguesa Santista U20 1 2 1 +1 3
5 Portuguesa U20 1 2 1 +1 3
6 Corinthians U20 1 1 0 +1 3
7 União Suzano U20 1 1 0 +1 3
8 Ponte Preta U20 1 1 2 -1 0
9 Jabaquara U20 1 1 2 -1 0
10 São Bento U20 1 0 1 -1 0
11 Mirassol U20 1 0 1 -1 0
12 Itapirense U20 1 0 2 -2 0
13 América-SP U20 1 0 3 -3 0
14 Sertãozinho U20 1 0 3 -3 0
Paulista - U20 Brazil. Paulista - U20 Predictions