Fraserburgh vs Strathspey Thistle Statistics & Analysis

Fraserburgh

Oct 10, 2026 - 14:00

2 1.59

2 1.01

xG Accuracy: 68%

Strathspey Thistle

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Fraserburgh Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 02:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13222391

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Fraserburgh 2–2 Strathspey Thistle

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Football League - Highland League
Fixture: Fraserburgh vs Strathspey Thistle
Kickoff: 2026-10-10 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 49.3% · Draw 28.2% · Away 22.5%
xG (showing): Fraserburgh 1.59 — Strathspey Thistle 1.01 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 31.4% · Probability edge: +20.5 pts · Est. EV: +55.4%
BTTS (model): Yes 52.2% · No 47.8%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.9%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 13, 2026 (UTC)

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