Salisbury vs Havant & Wville Statistics & Analysis

Salisbury

Jul 31, 2026 - 18:45

5 1.31

0 1.29

xG Accuracy: 25%

Havant & Wville

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Salisbury Salisbury ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 05:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1678507

Closing Odds 1.62

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Salisbury win · Salisbury 5–0 Havant & Wville

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Havant & Wville (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 14.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Salisbury (1X2)	35.6	55.5	-20.0
Draw (1X2)	29.7	22.5	+7.2
Havant & Wville (1X2)	34.7	21.9	+12.8
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	62.5	-14.3
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	37.5	+14.3

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 37.5%. The difference — about 14.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Salisbury (1X2)	1.62	1.62
Draw (1X2)	4.0	4.0
Havant & Wville (1X2)	4.1	4.1
Over 2.5 goals	1.5	1.5
Under 2.5 goals	2.5	2.5

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Friendlies Clubs
Fixture: Salisbury vs Havant & Wville
Kickoff: 2026-07-31 18:45:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
xG (showing): Salisbury 1.31 — Havant & Wville 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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