Bonner SC vs MSV Duisburg Statistics & Analysis

Bonner SC

Jul 18, 2026 - 12:00

1 1.18

4 1.42

xG Accuracy: 47%

MSV Duisburg

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 00:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1658879

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result MSV Duisburg win · Bonner SC 1–4 MSV Duisburg

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Club Friendlies
Fixture: Bonner SC vs MSV Duisburg
Kickoff: 2026-07-18 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.0%
xG (showing): Bonner SC 1.18 — MSV Duisburg 1.42 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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