Ansbach vs 1. FC Nürnberg Statistics & Analysis

Ansbach

Jul 11, 2026 - 16:00

1 1.25

5 1.35

xG Accuracy: 34%

1. FC Nürnberg

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 1. FC Nürnberg 1. FC Nürnberg ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 11:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2985319

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result 1. FC Nürnberg win · Ansbach 1–5 1. FC Nürnberg

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Friendlies Clubs
Fixture: Ansbach vs 1. FC Nürnberg
Kickoff: 2026-07-11 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
xG (showing): Ansbach 1.25 — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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