Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Pogoń Siedlce Statistics & Analysis

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Jul 11, 2026 - 09:00

2 1.34

2 1.26

xG Accuracy: 68%

Pogoń Siedlce

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 19:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2896178

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2–2 Pogoń Siedlce

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Friendlies Clubs
Fixture: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Pogoń Siedlce
Kickoff: 2026-07-11 09:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.7% · Draw 28.8% · Away 32.5%
xG (showing): Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1.34 — Pogoń Siedlce 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 45.4% · Probability edge: +6.5 pts · Est. EV: +8.8%
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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