Marília vs Grêmio Prudente Statistics & Analysis

Marília

Jul 17, 2026 - 22:30

1 1.24

0 1.36

xG Accuracy: 64%

Grêmio Prudente

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Grêmio Prudente Marília ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 28, 2026 · 02:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2120816

Closing Odds 1.48

AI Fair Odds 2.63

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Marília win · Marília 1–0 Grêmio Prudente

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

Expected: 38.0%
Historical Bucket: 35–40% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 4.01 percentage points on Marília (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Grêmio Prudente (1X2) by about 25.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Marília (1X2)	32.4	61.2	-28.8
Draw (1X2)	29.6	25.9	+3.7
Grêmio Prudente (1X2)	38.0	12.9	+25.1
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	39.1	+9.1
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	60.9	-9.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 38.0% on Grêmio Prudente (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 12.9%. The difference — about 25.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Marília (1X2)	1.57	1.48	+4.0
Draw (1X2)	3.3	3.5	-1.3
Grêmio Prudente (1X2)	5.75	7.0	-2.7
Over 2.5 goals	2.38	2.38	0.0
Under 2.5 goals	1.53	1.53	0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Copa Paulista
Fixture: Marília vs Grêmio Prudente
Kickoff: 2026-07-17 22:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
xG (showing): Marília 1.24 — Grêmio Prudente 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.4% · Implied: 38.4% · Probability edge: +16.0 pts · Est. EV: +33.3%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Marília & Grêmio Prudente!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics