Switzerland vs Slovenia Statistics & Analysis

Switzerland

Oct 03, 2026 - 18:45

2 1.87

1 1.92

xG Accuracy: 75%

Slovenia

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Switzerland Switzerland ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11260017

Closing Odds 1.27

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Switzerland win · Switzerland 2–1 Slovenia

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Slovenia (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 21.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Switzerland (1X2)	56.8	76.1	-19.4
Draw (1X2)	22.5	16.7	+5.8
Slovenia (1X2)	20.7	7.2	+13.5
Over 2.5 goals	73.0	51.7	+21.3
Under 2.5 goals	27.1	48.3	-21.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 73.0% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 51.7%. The difference — about 21.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Switzerland (1X2)	1.27	1.27
Draw (1X2)	5.8	5.8
Slovenia (1X2)	13.39	13.39
Over 2.5 goals	1.88	1.88
Under 2.5 goals	2.01	2.01

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: UEFA Nations League
Fixture: Switzerland vs Slovenia
Kickoff: 2026-10-03 18:45:00
1X2 (model): Home 56.8% · Draw 22.5% · Away 20.7%
xG (showing): Switzerland 1.87 — Slovenia 1.92 (total xG ≈ 3.79)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 27.1% · Over 2.5 73.0%); BTTS Yes (Yes 73.2% · No 26.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 73.2% · No 26.8%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (8.1%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

UEFA Nations League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	France	3	2	1	0	7
2	Belgium	3	2	0	1	6
3	Italy	3	1	1	1	4
4	Türkiye	3	0	0	3	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Belgium	3	5	1	+4	6
2	Italy	3	5	4	+1	4
3	France	3	3	1	+2	7
4	Türkiye	3	1	8	-7	0

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	France	3	—	—	—	7
2	Belgium	3	—	—	—	6
3	Italy	3	—	—	—	4
4	Türkiye	3	—	—	—	0