Statistics / Football / World. UEFA Nations League / Malta vs Gibraltar

Malta vs Gibraltar Statistics & Analysis

Malta Malta
Oct 01, 2026 - 18:45
1 1.81
1 1.98
xG Accuracy: 61%
Gibraltar Gibraltar
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Malta Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 25, 2026 · 01:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10757940

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Malta 1–1 Gibraltar
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: UEFA Nations League
  • Fixture: Malta vs Gibraltar
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-01 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 54.9% · Draw 23.3% · Away 21.8%
  • xG (showing): Malta 1.81 — Gibraltar 1.98 (total xG ≈ 3.79)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.1%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 27.1% · Over 2.5 73.0%); BTTS Yes (Yes 73.1% · No 26.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 73.1% · No 26.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (8.1%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Malta & Gibraltar!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
UEFA Nations League UEFA Nations League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 France 4 3 1 0 10
2 Italy 4 2 1 1 7
3 Belgium 4 2 0 2 6
4 Türkiye 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Italy 4 8 5 +3 7
2 France 4 7 2 +5 10
3 Belgium 4 6 5 +1 6
4 Türkiye 4 2 11 -9 0
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 France 4 — — — 10
2 Italy 4 — — — 7
3 Belgium 4 — — — 6
4 Türkiye 4 — — — 0