Statistics / Football / China. FA Cup / Shanghai Zetian vs Chengdu Better City

Shanghai Zetian vs Chengdu Better City Statistics & Analysis

Shanghai Zetian Shanghai Zetian
Jun 20, 2026 - 11:30
0 1.19
4 1.41
xG Accuracy: 35%
Chengdu Better City Chengdu Better City
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Chengdu Better City Chengdu Better City ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 21:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1933044

Closing Odds 1.14
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Chengdu Better City win · Shanghai Zetian 0–4 Chengdu Better City
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 2.0 percentage points on Over 2.5 goals between PRE10 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Shanghai Zetian (1X2) by about 22.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Shanghai Zetian (1X2) 30.1 7.2 +22.9
Draw (1X2) 29.4 13.0 +16.4
Chengdu Better City (1X2) 40.5 79.7 -39.3
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 62.0 -13.8
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 38.0 +13.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 30.1% on Shanghai Zetian (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 7.2%. The difference — about 22.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE10) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Shanghai Zetian (1X2) 11.78 12.57 -0.5
Draw (1X2) 6.43 6.98 -1.1
Chengdu Better City (1X2) 1.16 1.14 +1.6
Over 2.5 goals 1.53 1.48 +2.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.3 2.42 -2.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Chengdu Better City; market prices Chengdu Better City instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Shanghai Zetian 1.19 xG vs Chengdu Better City 1.41 → Chengdu Better City 40.4%
  • Market: Chengdu Better City ~79.7% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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