Statistics / Football / Bolivia. Primera División / Universitario de Vinto vs Guabirá

Universitario de Vinto vs Guabirá Statistics & Analysis

Universitario de Vinto Universitario de Vinto
Jul 31, 2026 - 19:00
1 2.18
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 68%
Guabirá Guabirá
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Universitario de Vinto Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0, 3-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 05:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1678938

Closing Odds 1.77
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Universitario de Vinto 1–1 Guabirá
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 3.11 percentage points on Universitario de Vinto (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Universitario de Vinto (1X2) by about 7.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Universitario de Vinto (1X2) 57.4 50.5 +7.0
Draw (1X2) 22.5 25.8 -3.3
Guabirá (1X2) 20.1 23.7 -3.6
Over 2.5 goals 66.6 63.7 +2.9
Under 2.5 goals 33.4 36.3 -2.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 57.4% on Universitario de Vinto (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 50.5%. The difference — about 7.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Universitario de Vinto (1X2) 1.65 1.77 -3.1
Draw (1X2) 3.77 3.46 +2.4
Guabirá (1X2) 3.85 3.77 +0.7
Over 2.5 goals 1.4 1.44 -1.3
Under 2.5 goals 2.6 2.53 +1.3

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera División
  • Fixture: Universitario de Vinto vs Guabirá
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-31 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 57.4% · Draw 22.5% · Away 20.1%
  • xG (showing): Universitario de Vinto 2.18 — Guabirá 1.25 (total xG ≈ 3.43)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 33.4% · Over 2.5 66.6%); BTTS Yes (Yes 64.4% · No 35.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 64.4% · No 35.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (9.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Primera División Primera División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Always Ready 20 13 6 1 45
2 Bolívar 20 14 3 3 45
3 The Strongest 20 12 6 2 42
4 Real Potosí 20 8 8 4 32
5 Oriente Petrolero 20 9 3 8 30
6 Aurora 20 7 9 4 30
7 Guabirá 20 8 5 7 29
8 Blooming 20 6 9 5 27
9 Nacional Potosí 20 8 3 9 27
10 Independiente Petrolero 20 7 4 9 25
11 Real Oruro 20 6 3 11 21
12 ABB 20 6 2 12 20
13 San Antonio Bulo Bulo 20 6 2 12 20
14 Universitario de Vinto 20 5 3 12 18
15 Real Tomayapo 20 4 4 12 16
16 Gualberto Villarroel SJ 20 2 8 10 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bolívar 20 54 22 +32 45
2 Always Ready 20 47 13 +34 45
3 The Strongest 20 39 22 +17 42
4 Oriente Petrolero 20 36 27 +9 30
5 Guabirá 20 32 39 -7 29
6 Real Oruro 20 32 50 -18 21
7 Aurora 20 31 27 +4 30
8 ABB 20 31 45 -14 20
9 Blooming 20 30 22 +8 27
10 Nacional Potosí 20 30 28 +2 27
11 Real Potosí 20 27 14 +13 32
12 Independiente Petrolero 20 27 35 -8 25
13 Universitario de Vinto 20 26 39 -13 18
14 Gualberto Villarroel SJ 20 21 37 -16 14
15 San Antonio Bulo Bulo 20 21 40 -19 20
16 Real Tomayapo 20 15 39 -24 16
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Bolívar 20 1.6 1.4 +0.2 45
2 Real Potosí 20 1.4 1.6 -0.2 32
3 Always Ready 20 — — — 45
4 The Strongest 20 — — — 42
5 Oriente Petrolero 20 — — — 30
6 Aurora 20 — — — 30
7 Guabirá 20 — — — 29
8 Blooming 20 — — — 27
9 Nacional Potosí 20 — — — 27
10 Independiente Petrolero 20 — — — 25
11 Real Oruro 20 — — — 21
12 ABB 20 — — — 20
13 San Antonio Bulo Bulo 20 — — — 20
14 Universitario de Vinto 20 — — — 18
15 Real Tomayapo 20 — — — 16
16 Gualberto Villarroel SJ 20 — — — 14