Statistics / Football / Brazil. Maranhense - 2 / Expressinho vs Sao Luis

Expressinho vs Sao Luis Statistics & Analysis

Expressinho Expressinho
Jun 11, 2026 - 18:30
2 1.19
3 1.51
xG Accuracy: 53%
Sao Luis Sao Luis
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sao Luis Sao Luis ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Prediction Time: Frozen pre-match snapshot

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Sao Luis win · Expressinho 2–3 Sao Luis
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Maranhense - 2
  • Fixture: Expressinho vs Sao Luis
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-11 18:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home N/A · Draw N/A · Away N/A
  • xG (showing): Expressinho 1.19 — Sao Luis 1.51 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Maranhense - 2 Maranhense - 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Araioses 5 4 1 0 13
2 Sao Luis 5 3 1 1 10
3 Lago Verde 4 3 0 1 9
4 Timon MA 4 2 2 0 8
5 Pinheiro 4 2 1 1 7
6 Tupan 5 1 3 1 6
7 Expressinho 5 2 0 3 6
8 Cordino 4 1 2 1 5
9 Americano Bacabal 5 1 1 3 4
10 São José MA 5 1 0 4 3
11 Balsas 4 0 2 2 2
12 Viana 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lago Verde 4 13 3 +10 9
2 Sao Luis 5 9 4 +5 10
3 Araioses 5 6 0 +6 13
4 Tupan 5 6 6 0 6
5 Expressinho 5 5 6 -1 6
6 Timon MA 4 4 1 +3 8
7 Pinheiro 4 4 3 +1 7
8 São José MA 5 4 8 -4 3
9 Cordino 4 3 3 0 5
10 Balsas 4 3 6 -3 2
11 Americano Bacabal 5 3 9 -6 4
12 Viana 4 2 13 -11 1