San Marcos de Arica vs Coquimbo Unido Statistics & Analysis

San Marcos de Arica

Jun 27, 2026 - 21:00

0 1.20

1 1.40

xG Accuracy: 64%

Coquimbo Unido

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Coquimbo Unido Coquimbo Unido ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 17:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3062060

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Coquimbo Unido win · San Marcos de Arica 0–1 Coquimbo Unido

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Copa Chile
Fixture: San Marcos de Arica vs Coquimbo Unido
Kickoff: 2026-06-27 21:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 27.5% · Draw 28.7% · Away 43.8%
xG (showing): San Marcos de Arica 1.2 — Coquimbo Unido 1.4 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 48.6% · Probability edge: +3.2 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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