Statistics / Football / Brazil. Baiano - 2 / Camaçari vs Grapiuna Itabuna

Camaçari vs Grapiuna Itabuna Statistics & Analysis

Camaçari Camaçari
Jun 20, 2026 - 18:00
1 1.47
3 1.13
xG Accuracy: 52%
Grapiuna Itabuna Grapiuna Itabuna
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Camaçari Grapiuna Itabuna ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 12:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2513178

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Grapiuna Itabuna win · Camaçari 1–3 Grapiuna Itabuna
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Baiano - 2
  • Fixture: Camaçari vs Grapiuna Itabuna
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-20 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 43.3% · Draw 29.2% · Away 27.5%
  • xG (showing): Camaçari 1.47 — Grapiuna Itabuna 1.13 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Baiano - 2 Baiano - 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Fluminense De Feira 9 8 1 0 25
2 SSA 9 7 0 2 21
3 Barreiras FC 9 7 0 2 21
4 Feira FC 9 6 1 2 19
5 Redenção FC 9 4 2 3 14
6 Leonico 9 3 1 5 10
7 Jacobina 9 2 1 6 7
8 Grapiuna Itabuna 9 2 1 6 7
9 Vitoria Da Conquista 9 1 3 5 6
10 Camaçari 9 0 0 9 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Fluminense De Feira 9 33 5 +28 25
2 Feira FC 9 27 4 +23 19
3 Barreiras FC 9 20 8 +12 21
4 SSA 9 19 5 +14 21
5 Redenção FC 9 16 11 +5 14
6 Leonico 9 16 24 -8 10
7 Vitoria Da Conquista 9 9 15 -6 6
8 Jacobina 9 9 23 -14 7
9 Grapiuna Itabuna 9 8 26 -18 7
10 Camaçari 9 5 41 -36 0