Statistics / Football / Brazil. Baiano - 2 / Leonico vs Jacobina

Leonico vs Jacobina Statistics & Analysis

Leonico Leonico
Jun 19, 2026 - 18:00
5 1.27
2 1.33
xG Accuracy: 30%
Jacobina Jacobina
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Jacobina Leonico ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 5-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 02:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1532004

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Leonico win · Leonico 5–2 Jacobina
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Baiano - 2
  • Fixture: Leonico vs Jacobina
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-19 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Leonico 1.27 — Jacobina 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Baiano - 2 Baiano - 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Fluminense De Feira 9 8 1 0 25
2 SSA 9 7 0 2 21
3 Barreiras FC 9 7 0 2 21
4 Feira FC 9 6 1 2 19
5 Redenção FC 9 4 2 3 14
6 Leonico 9 3 1 5 10
7 Jacobina 9 2 1 6 7
8 Grapiuna Itabuna 9 2 1 6 7
9 Vitoria Da Conquista 9 1 3 5 6
10 Camaçari 9 0 0 9 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Fluminense De Feira 9 33 5 +28 25
2 Feira FC 9 27 4 +23 19
3 Barreiras FC 9 20 8 +12 21
4 SSA 9 19 5 +14 21
5 Redenção FC 9 16 11 +5 14
6 Leonico 9 16 24 -8 10
7 Vitoria Da Conquista 9 9 15 -6 6
8 Jacobina 9 9 23 -14 7
9 Grapiuna Itabuna 9 8 26 -18 7
10 Camaçari 9 5 41 -36 0