Jacobina vs Fluminense De Feira Statistics & Analysis

Jacobina

Jun 13, 2026 - 18:00

0 1.24

6 1.36

xG Accuracy: 20%

Fluminense De Feira

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Fluminense De Feira Fluminense De Feira ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-6 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 15:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1613551

Closing Odds 1.09

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Fluminense De Feira win · Jacobina 0–6 Fluminense De Feira

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Jacobina (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 16.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Jacobina (1X2)	22.8	7.6	+15.2
Draw (1X2)	27.3	12.1	+15.2
Fluminense De Feira (1X2)	50.0	80.3	-30.4
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	65.0	-16.8
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	35.0	+16.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 35.0%. The difference — about 16.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Jacobina (1X2)	11.54	11.54
Draw (1X2)	7.24	7.24
Fluminense De Feira (1X2)	1.09	1.09
Over 2.5 goals	1.38	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	2.56	2.56

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Fluminense De Feira; market prices Fluminense De Feira instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Jacobina 1.24 xG vs Fluminense De Feira 1.36 → Fluminense De Feira 49.9%
Market: Fluminense De Feira ~80.3% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Baiano - 2 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Fluminense De Feira	9	8	1	0	25
2	SSA	9	7	0	2	21
3	Barreiras FC	9	7	0	2	21
4	Feira FC	9	6	1	2	19
5	Redenção FC	9	4	2	3	14
6	Leonico	9	3	1	5	10
7	Jacobina	9	2	1	6	7
8	Grapiuna Itabuna	9	2	1	6	7
9	Vitoria Da Conquista	9	1	3	5	6
10	Camaçari	9	0	0	9	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Fluminense De Feira	9	33	5	+28	25
2	Feira FC	9	27	4	+23	19
3	Barreiras FC	9	20	8	+12	21
4	SSA	9	19	5	+14	21
5	Redenção FC	9	16	11	+5	14
6	Leonico	9	16	24	-8	10
7	Vitoria Da Conquista	9	9	15	-6	6
8	Jacobina	9	9	23	-14	7
9	Grapiuna Itabuna	9	8	26	-18	7
10	Camaçari	9	5	41	-36	0