Ugyen Academy vs Thimphu Statistics & Analysis

Ugyen Academy

Jun 16, 2026 - 10:00

2 1.39

4 1.21

xG Accuracy: 39%

Thimphu

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Ugyen Academy Thimphu ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 14:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1606255

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Thimphu win · Ugyen Academy 2–4 Thimphu

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Premier League
Fixture: Ugyen Academy vs Thimphu
Kickoff: 2026-06-16 10:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
xG (showing): Ugyen Academy 1.39 — Thimphu 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Paro	16	14	1	1	43
2	Thimphu City	15	10	4	1	34
3	Transport United	15	9	1	5	28
4	Thimphu	14	7	1	6	22
5	RTC	15	6	3	6	21
6	Drukpa	15	4	5	6	17
7	Tsirang	15	4	4	7	16
8	Bhutan U19	14	4	4	6	16
9	Tensung	14	2	2	10	8
10	Ugyen Academy	15	1	1	13	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Paro	16	66	12	+54	43
2	Thimphu City	15	43	11	+32	34
3	Drukpa	15	28	25	+3	17
4	Transport United	15	26	19	+7	28
5	Tsirang	15	25	34	-9	16
6	Bhutan U19	14	24	34	-10	16
7	RTC	15	17	17	0	21
8	Thimphu	14	17	20	-3	22
9	Tensung	14	10	38	-28	8
10	Ugyen Academy	15	9	55	-46	4