Statistics / Football / Iceland. 2. Deild / Kári vs Thróttur Vogar

Kári vs Thróttur Vogar Statistics & Analysis

Kári Kári
Aug 28, 2026 - 19:15
2 1.22
0 1.38
xG Accuracy: 55%
Thróttur Vogar Thróttur Vogar
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Thróttur Vogar Kári ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 22, 2026 · 04:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4949222

Closing Odds 1.54
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Kári win · Kári 2–0 Thróttur Vogar
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Thróttur Vogar (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Thróttur Vogar (1X2) by about 17.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Kári (1X2) 31.5 59.5 -28.0
Draw (1X2) 29.5 19.1 +10.4
Thróttur Vogar (1X2) 39.0 21.4 +17.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 39.0% on Thróttur Vogar (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 21.4%. The difference — about 17.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Kári (1X2) 1.54 1.54 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.79 4.79 0.0
Thróttur Vogar (1X2) 4.28 4.28 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 2. Deild
  • Fixture: Kári vs Thróttur Vogar
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-28 19:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
  • xG (showing): Kári 1.22 — Thróttur Vogar 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 25.5% · Probability edge: +26.3 pts · Est. EV: +94.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Kári & Thróttur Vogar!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
2. Deild 2. Deild — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Haukar 20 15 2 3 47
2 Selfoss 20 11 6 3 39
3 Kári 20 9 9 2 36
4 Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 20 9 2 9 29
5 Vikingur Olafsiik 20 8 4 8 28
6 Fjolnir 20 7 5 8 26
7 Dalvík / Reynir 20 7 4 9 25
8 Magni 20 7 4 9 25
9 Kormákur / Hvöt 20 6 6 8 24
10 Thróttur Vogar 20 6 1 13 19
11 KFG 20 6 1 13 19
12 Hvíti riddarinn 20 3 8 9 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Haukar 20 54 26 +28 47
2 Selfoss 20 51 34 +17 39
3 Kári 20 50 29 +21 36
4 Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 20 49 38 +11 29
5 Fjolnir 20 46 44 +2 26
6 Kormákur / Hvöt 20 37 33 +4 24
7 Magni 20 34 50 -16 25
8 KFG 20 33 55 -22 19
9 Dalvík / Reynir 20 30 34 -4 25
10 Thróttur Vogar 20 30 40 -10 19
11 Vikingur Olafsiik 20 28 37 -9 28
12 Hvíti riddarinn 20 24 46 -22 17