Statistics / Football / Iceland. 2. Deild / Magni vs Thróttur Vogar

Magni vs Thróttur Vogar Statistics & Analysis

Magni Magni
Jul 04, 2026 - 16:00
4 1.28
3 1.32
xG Accuracy: 30%
Thróttur Vogar Thróttur Vogar
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Thróttur Vogar Magni ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 18:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2894574

Closing Odds 2.09
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Magni win · Magni 4–3 Thróttur Vogar
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 19.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Magni (1X2) 34.2 34.2 +0.1
Draw (1X2) 29.7 22.5 +7.2
Thróttur Vogar (1X2) 36.1 43.3 -7.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 67.3 -19.1
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 32.7 +19.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 32.7%. The difference — about 19.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Magni (1X2) 2.65 2.65 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.03 4.03 0.0
Thróttur Vogar (1X2) 2.09 2.09 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.37 1.37 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.82 2.82 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 2. Deild
  • Fixture: Magni vs Thróttur Vogar
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-04 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Magni 1.28 — Thróttur Vogar 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 45.5% · Implied: 30.3% · Probability edge: +15.2 pts · Est. EV: +45.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
2. Deild 2. Deild — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Haukar 22 15 2 5 47
2 Selfoss 22 13 6 3 45
3 Kári 22 11 9 2 42
4 Dalvík / Reynir 22 9 4 9 31
5 Vikingur Olafsiik 22 9 4 9 31
6 Fjolnir 22 8 6 8 30
7 Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 22 9 2 11 29
8 Kormákur / Hvöt 22 7 6 9 27
9 Magni 22 7 4 11 25
10 Thróttur Vogar 22 7 2 13 23
11 KFG 22 7 1 14 22
12 Hvíti riddarinn 22 3 8 11 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kári 22 56 29 +27 42
2 Haukar 22 55 32 +23 47
3 Selfoss 22 55 36 +19 45
4 Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 22 51 45 +6 29
5 Fjolnir 22 49 46 +3 30
6 Kormákur / Hvöt 22 42 38 +4 27
7 KFG 22 38 58 -20 22
8 Dalvík / Reynir 22 37 37 0 31
9 Magni 22 35 54 -19 25
10 Vikingur Olafsiik 22 33 41 -8 31
11 Thróttur Vogar 22 33 42 -9 23
12 Hvíti riddarinn 22 28 54 -26 17