Juventus SC vs Fluminense-SC Statistics & Analysis

Juventus SC

Jul 19, 2026 - 18:00

3 1.36

0 1.24

xG Accuracy: 45%

Fluminense-SC

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Juventus SC Juventus SC ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 03:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1547087

Closing Odds 1.86

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Juventus SC win · Juventus SC 3–0 Fluminense-SC

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Fluminense-SC (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 9.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Juventus SC (1X2)	40.6	47.8	-7.1
Draw (1X2)	29.6	28.4	+1.2
Fluminense-SC (1X2)	29.8	23.8	+5.9
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	39.2	+9.0
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	60.8	-9.0

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 39.2%. The difference — about 9.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Juventus SC (1X2)	1.86	1.86
Draw (1X2)	3.13	3.13
Fluminense-SC (1X2)	3.73	3.73
Over 2.5 goals	2.33	2.33
Under 2.5 goals	1.5	1.5

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Catarinense Série B
Fixture: Juventus SC vs Fluminense-SC
Kickoff: 2026-07-19 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 40.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 29.8%
xG (showing): Juventus SC 1.36 — Fluminense-SC 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.4% · Implied: 45.1% · Probability edge: +9.3 pts · Est. EV: +14.2%
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Catarinense - 2 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Blumenau	9	6	1	2	19
2	Metropolitano	9	6	1	2	19
3	Caravaggio	9	5	3	1	18
4	Hercílio Luz	9	5	2	2	17
5	Tubarao	9	3	5	1	14
6	Guarani de Palhoça	9	3	2	4	11
7	Fluminense-SC	9	3	1	5	10
8	Nação	9	2	3	4	9
9	Juventus SC	9	2	1	6	7
10	Jaraguá	9	0	1	8	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Caravaggio	9	25	10	+15	18
2	Blumenau	9	21	3	+18	19
3	Hercílio Luz	9	17	6	+11	17
4	Metropolitano	9	16	6	+10	19
5	Tubarao	9	11	7	+4	14
6	Nação	9	10	19	-9	9
7	Guarani de Palhoça	9	8	14	-6	11
8	Fluminense-SC	9	7	10	-3	10
9	Jaraguá	9	4	32	-28	1
10	Juventus SC	9	3	15	-12	7