Statistics / Football / Brazil. Catarinense - 2 / Caravaggio vs Tubarao

Caravaggio vs Tubarao Statistics & Analysis

Caravaggio Caravaggio
Jul 15, 2026 - 22:00
2 1.36
1 1.24
xG Accuracy: 78%
Tubarao Tubarao
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Caravaggio Caravaggio ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 13:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1602119

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Caravaggio win · Caravaggio 2–1 Tubarao
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Catarinense - 2
  • Fixture: Caravaggio vs Tubarao
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-15 22:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
  • xG (showing): Caravaggio 1.36 — Tubarao 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Catarinense - 2 Catarinense - 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Blumenau 9 6 1 2 19
2 Metropolitano 9 6 1 2 19
3 Caravaggio 9 5 3 1 18
4 Hercílio Luz 9 5 2 2 17
5 Tubarao 9 3 5 1 14
6 Guarani de Palhoça 9 3 2 4 11
7 Fluminense-SC 9 3 1 5 10
8 Nação 9 2 3 4 9
9 Juventus SC 9 2 1 6 7
10 Jaraguá 9 0 1 8 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Caravaggio 9 25 10 +15 18
2 Blumenau 9 21 3 +18 19
3 Hercílio Luz 9 17 6 +11 17
4 Metropolitano 9 16 6 +10 19
5 Tubarao 9 11 7 +4 14
6 Nação 9 10 19 -9 9
7 Guarani de Palhoça 9 8 14 -6 11
8 Fluminense-SC 9 7 10 -3 10
9 Jaraguá 9 4 32 -28 1
10 Juventus SC 9 3 15 -12 7